Vietnam's credit growth outpaces deposit growth year to date

Published 28 Sep 2026Data as of 17 Sep 2026VietnamMacro & households

Correction: Causal claim in the headline ('blocking lower rates') softened to a factual statement; basis date stated as unverified. English version: the Japanese draft rendered 'quadrillion' with the Japanese unit kei, a tenfold overstatement; corrected in the metric data.

Year-to-date credit growth was 10.24% versus deposit growth of 8.77%, a gap of 1.47 pt
Credit outstanding was over VND 20.15 quadrillion at 29 July, up 8.38% from end-2025
ADB puts bank credit at 145% of GDP, with many banks' loan-to-deposit ratios near the cap

Facts

Credit and deposits: Vietnam's year-to-date credit growth was 10.24% ¹ and deposit (funding) growth 8.77%, a gap of 1.47 pt. The report draws on the SBV's money market report, but the exact basis date is not stated (unverified). In the week of 7–11 September the interbank overnight rate fell to 2.52% and the one-week rate to 3.37%. Source: Báo Nghệ An (2026-09-17).

Outstanding: credit outstanding was over VND 20.15 quadrillion as of 29 July 2026, up 8.38% from end-2025. Source: VietnamPlus (2026-08-04).

Structure: bank credit equals 145% of GDP (end-2025) and the corporate bond market 10% of GDP. Many banks' loan-to-deposit ratios are close to or above regulatory limits. The SBV refinancing rate is 4.5%, and the 2026 credit growth guideline is about 15%. Source: ADB ADO September 2026 (2026-09-23).

Analysis

Over time, year-to-date credit growth rose from 8.38% at 29 July to 10.24% as reported in mid-September. Against the about 15% guideline, that leaves about 4.8 pt of room for the remaining three and a half months (T&S calculation). If deposit growth continues to lag credit, banks with loan-to-deposit ratios near the cap will find it hard to lower deposit rates; the report cites this as limiting the scope for deposit-rate cuts.

By comparison, Thai bank lending grew only 2.0% year on year (Q2 2026, BOT); the two countries are in opposite phases in terms of credit growth and funding constraints.

Implications

ExecutivesWith funding costs likely to stay elevated, it is a time to revisit pricing of consumer products and credit priorities.

InvestorsAt banks with loan-to-deposit ratios near the cap, credit growth is constrained by capital and deposits, and differences in lending capacity across banks may widen towards year-end.

OperatorsFor floating-rate products, underwriting should factor in higher repayments if rates rise.

Counterpoints and uncertainties

The basis date for the 10.24% and 8.77% figures is not stated, so comparison with the end-July figure is not exact. Deposit rates may also move with policy guidance and bank capital raising (planned at VND 128 trn (about USD 4.93 bn) for listed banks), so the direction of rates cannot be inferred from the credit-deposit gap alone.

Figures: see definitions

System credit growth, year to date: 10.24%
Unverified; exact basis date not stated, report dated 17 September 2026.
. Growth of credit outstanding since end-2025, from SBV market report as reported. Banking system. Basis date: 17 Sep 2026. Source: Báo Nghệ An: Lãi suất ngân hàng ngày 17/9/2026 (2026-09-17)

Sources

Reports are for information only and are not investment advice. Methodology: sources, verification and definitions