Hong Kong household debt climbs to 89.5% of GDP while bureau arrears stay low
Key points
- The HKMA's September stability report puts household debt at 89.5% of GDP at end-June 2026, up from 87.6% in H2 2025, as debt grew 5.2% in the half-year.
- Credit quality has not weakened so far: TransUnion's personal-loan delinquency rate fell to 0.91% in Q2 (down 7 bp year on year) and banks' classified loan ratio eased to 1.82%.
- Card growth is selective: balances rose +4.3% year on year, while the number of revolving-line consumers changed -5.5%.
Facts
The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) released its Half-Yearly Monetary and Financial Stability Report (September 2026 issue) on 29 September 2026 (source: HKMA). As reported by Sing Tao Daily and AASTOCKS, household debt grew 5.2% in the first half of 2026 (against 2.7% in H2 2025), faster than GDP, lifting household debt to 89.5% of GDP, up from 87.6% in H2 2025. 1 Residential mortgage loans grew 2.5% in the half-year on higher property transactions, and the average debt servicing ratio of newly approved mortgages was 39.4% in July 2026, which the HKMA describes as healthy. 2 The classified loan ratio of authorized institutions was 1.82% at end-June, down from 1.87% at end-March 2026. 3
TransUnion Hong Kong's Q2 2026 credit industry report (26 August 2026) shows personal-loan delinquency falling: the consumer-level personal-loan delinquency rate was 0.91%, down 7 bp year on year, and the account-level rate 0.81%, down 3 bp year on year. 4 Outstanding credit card balances grew +4.3% year on year, with the account-level serious delinquency rate at 0.03%, unchanged year on year. Gen Z consumers took 24.9% of new card originations in Q1 2026, up 1.8 percentage points year on year. The number of consumers carrying revolving line balances changed -5.5% year on year (source: TransUnion). 5
Analysis
The HKMA measure matches the turn in BIS data: after easing through 2024 and holding broadly flat in 2025, Hong Kong's household credit-to-GDP ratio rose to 88.9% in Q1 2026 (87.8% in Q4 2025). The HKMA's end-June figure of 89.5% points to the rise continuing into Q2. The two compilers use different coverage, so the levels are indicative rather than identical.
Against Singapore the contrast is in leverage, not arrears. Singapore's household debt was 1.08x of disposable income in Q2 2026 (1.04x in Q2 2025), and interest-bearing card rollover balances reached SGD 9.64bn (SGD 8.82bn in Q2 2025). In both markets debt is growing faster than incomes or output while reported delinquency stays low. In Hong Kong, card balances are rising while fewer consumers carry revolving balances, which suggests card balances are growing among existing borrowers rather than through new revolvers.
| 2024Q2 | 90 |
|---|---|
| 2024Q3 | 88.8 |
| 2024Q4 | 87.8 |
| 2025Q1 | 87.5 |
| 2025Q2 | 87.6 |
| 2025Q3 | 87.7 |
| 2025Q4 | 87.8 |
| 2026Q1 | 88.9 |
Credit to households and non-profits from all sectors at market value / GDP, BIS total credit statistics, adjusted for breaks (Q.HK.H.A.M.770.A) · Source: BIS total credit statistics, series Q.HK.H.A.M.770.A
Implications
Counterpoints and uncertainties
Bureau delinquency rates cover lenders reporting to TransUnion and can lag a turn in incomes; the HKMA ratio is a half-year snapshot, and press reports do not say whether the household debt growth rate is annualised. The Base Rate rose to 4.25% in September (up 25 bp from 4.00%), which raises servicing costs for floating-rate borrowers after the period covered by these figures.
Figures: see definitions
- Household debt to GDP (HKMA): 89.5% (up from 87.6% in H2 2025). Household debt / GDP, end of H1 2026 (HKMA stability report). Households, Hong Kong (HKMA). Basis date: 30 Jun 2026. Source: Sing Tao Daily (2026-09-30), reporting the HKMA Half-Yearly Monetary and Financial Stability Report (September 2026)
HKMA's own measure; BIS compiles a separate household credit-to-GDP series with a different coverage.
- Average DSR, new mortgages (HKMA): 39.4%. Average debt servicing ratio of new mortgage loans approved by banks, July 2026 (HKMA). Banks, Hong Kong. Basis date: 31 Jul 2026. Source: AASTOCKS (2026-10-01), reporting the HKMA Half-Yearly Monetary and Financial Stability Report (September 2026)
- Classified loan ratio (banks): 1.82% (down from 1.87% at end-March 2026). Classified loans / total loans, gross. Hong Kong banking sector (HKMA), as reported. Basis date: 30 Jun 2026. Source: The Standard (2026-09-28), reporting HKMA banking-sector figures for 2026Q2
Press reports differ on whether the ratio covers all authorized institutions or retail banks.
- Personal-loan 60+ DPD rate, consumer level (TransUnion): 0.91% (down 7 bp year on year). Share of personal-loan consumers 60 or more days past due, Q2 2026 (TransUnion Hong Kong). Consumers in the TransUnion Hong Kong credit file. Basis date: 30 Jun 2026. Source: TransUnion Hong Kong: Q2 2026 Credit Industry Insights Report release (2026-08-26)
- Revolving-line consumers (TransUnion): -5.5% (year on year). Year-on-year change in the number of consumers carrying revolving line balances, Q2 2026 (TransUnion Hong Kong). Consumers in the TransUnion Hong Kong credit file. Basis date: 30 Jun 2026. Source: TransUnion Hong Kong: Q2 2026 Credit Industry Insights Report release (2026-08-26)
Sources
- HKMA: Half-Yearly Monetary and Financial Stability Report (September 2026 Issue), press release (2026-09-29)primary
- TransUnion Hong Kong: Q2 2026 Credit Industry Insights Report (2026-08-26)primary
- Sing Tao Daily (2026-09-30): HKMA says residential mortgages grew 2.5% in H1; household debt-to-GDP rises to 89.5%
- AASTOCKS (2026-10-01): HKMA — household debt-to-GDP rises to 89.5%
Reports are for information only and are not investment advice.