Vietnam's average lending rate reaches 10.7% in August; analysts see easing only from 2027
Key points
- SBV data put the average lending rate at 10.7% in August, nearly 2 percentage points above end-2025
- The highest deposit rate for six- to twelve-month terms reached 8%, and some banks paid 8.5–9.3% a year on six-month promotions
- VNDirect expects rates to stay broadly stable through end-2026 and to ease more noticeably from early 2027
Facts
Lending rates: the average lending rate reached 10.7% 1 in August 2026, nearly 2 percentage points above end-2025, according to State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) data reported by Viet Nam News on 30 September 2026.
Deposit rates: the highest deposit rate for six- to twelve-month terms reached 8% 2 in August, and rates for terms of more than two years rose to 8.1% 3. Promotional six-month rates at some banks were 8.5–9.3% a year 4. Source: as above.
Inflation: consumer prices rose 4.45% 5 year on year on average in the first eight months of 2026, and core inflation 4.42% 6, close to the government's control target of 4.5% 7. Source: as above.
Outlook: VNDirect Securities and Techcombank's market-analysis division expect rates to remain broadly stable through the end of 2026, with VNDirect expecting a more noticeable decline from early 2027. They cite inflation, strong demand for capital and the risk of further US rate rises as constraints. Source: as above.
Analysis
Over time, the rise in lending rates follows the funding squeeze already visible in volumes: by mid-September credit had grown 10.24% 8 year to date against deposit growth of 8.77% 9, so banks are bidding for term deposits and passing the cost to borrowers. The policy anchor has not moved: the SBV refinancing rate stood at 4.5% 10, so the increase is driven by bank funding costs rather than by a policy-rate change.
Across the region, Vietnam and Thailand sit at opposite ends. Thailand's policy rate was 1.00% 11 and Thai bank loans grew only 2.0% 12 year on year in Q2 2026; Vietnam combines much faster credit growth with a rising price of credit. The annual credit-growth chart shows credit expanding faster in 2025 than in the three previous years, which set up the current funding gap.
| 2022 | 14.18 |
|---|---|
| 2023 | 13.71 |
| 2024 | 15.08 |
| 2025 | 19.01 |
Credit of the credit-institution system, growth over the calendar year (end-December vs previous end-December), State Bank of Vietnam figures as reported in the press · Source: State Bank of Vietnam full-year figures, as reported by Vietnamese media (2022, 2023, 2024, 2025) Revised full-year figures are used for 2022 and 2023 (first reported at 14.5% and about 13.5%). The 2026 year-to-date figure is not part of this series.
Implications
Counterpoints and uncertainties
The report does not say whether the average lending rate covers new or outstanding loans, so the size of the pass-through to existing borrowers is uncertain. The rate outlook is analysts' forecasts, not SBV guidance; a faster fall in inflation or a change in US rates could bring easing forward, while preferential SME packages priced below normal rates may soften the impact for some borrowers.
Figures: see definitions
- Average lending rate (SBV data): 10.7% (nearly 2 percentage points above end-2025). Average lending rate of credit institutions, State Bank of Vietnam data as reported by Viet Nam News. Banking system. Basis date: 31 Aug 2026. Source: Viet Nam News: Viet Nam rates likely to stay high until early 2027 (2026-09-30, citing SBV data)
The report does not specify loan tenor, currency or whether the average covers new or outstanding loans.
- Highest deposit rate, 6–12-month terms: 8%. Highest deposit rate offered for six- to 12-month terms, SBV data as reported by Viet Nam News. Banking system. Basis date: 31 Aug 2026. Source: Viet Nam News: Viet Nam rates likely to stay high until early 2027 (2026-09-30, citing SBV data)
- Deposit rate, terms over 24 months: 8.1% (rose (level for July not given)). Deposit rate for terms of more than 24 months, SBV data as reported by Viet Nam News. Banking system. Basis date: 31 Aug 2026. Source: Viet Nam News: Viet Nam rates likely to stay high until early 2027 (2026-09-30, citing SBV data)
- Promotional six-month deposit rates at some banks: 8.5–9.3% a year. Range of promotional six-month deposit rates at some banks, as reported by Viet Nam News. Selected banks. Basis date: 31 Aug 2026. Source: Viet Nam News: Viet Nam rates likely to stay high until early 2027 (2026-09-30, citing SBV data)
- CPI, average y/y, first eight months: 4.45%. Average year-on-year rise in consumer prices, January–August 2026. National. Basis date: 31 Aug 2026. Source: Viet Nam News: Viet Nam rates likely to stay high until early 2027 (2026-09-30, citing SBV data)
- Core inflation, average y/y, first eight months: 4.42%. Average year-on-year core inflation, January–August 2026. National. Basis date: 31 Aug 2026. Source: Viet Nam News: Viet Nam rates likely to stay high until early 2027 (2026-09-30, citing SBV data)
- Government inflation-control target 2026: 4.5%. Government ceiling for average 2026 inflation, as reported by Viet Nam News. National. Basis date: 30 Sep 2026. Source: Viet Nam News: Viet Nam rates likely to stay high until early 2027 (2026-09-30, citing SBV data)
- System credit growth, year to date: 10.24%. Growth of credit outstanding since end-2025, from SBV market report as reported. Banking system. Basis date: 17 Sep 2026. Source: Báo Nghệ An: Lãi suất ngân hàng ngày 17/9/2026 (2026-09-17)
Unverified; exact basis date not stated, report dated 17 September 2026.
- System deposit (funding) growth, year to date: 8.77%. Growth of deposits/funding since end-2025. Banking system. Basis date: 17 Sep 2026. Source: Báo Nghệ An: Lãi suất ngân hàng ngày 17/9/2026 (2026-09-17)
Unverified; as reported; basis date not stated.
- SBV refinancing rate: 4.5% (unchanged). State Bank of Vietnam refinancing rate. Monetary policy. Basis date: 23 Sep 2026. Source: ADB: Developing Southeast Asia, Asian Development Outlook September 2026 (2026-09-23)
As reported by ADB.
- Bank of Thailand policy rate: 1.00%. One-day repurchase rate set by the BOT Monetary Policy Committee. Monetary policy. Basis date: 31 Aug 2026. Source: ADB: Developing Southeast Asia, Asian Development Outlook September 2026 (2026-09-23)
As reported by ADB.
- Commercial bank loan growth, y/y: 2.0%. Year-on-year growth of commercial bank loans. Commercial banking system. Basis date: 30 Jun 2026. Source: Bank of Thailand: Banking Sector Quarterly Brief (Q2 2026) (2026-08-18)
Sources
Reports are for information only and are not investment advice.