AMRO projects Singapore growth of 4.8% in 2026, slowing to 3.1% in 2027

Published 6 Oct 2026Data as of 30 Sep 2026SingaporeMacro & households

AMRO's 2026 consultation report projects Singapore growth of 4.8% in 2026, up from AMRO's 2.0% forecast in September 2025, and 3.1% in 2027.
Growth was 6.1% in the first half of 2026, up from 5.1% in H2 2025, led by AI-related electronics demand.
AMRO expects headline inflation of 2.1% in 2026, up from 0.9% in 2025, before easing to 1.7% in 2027.

Facts

AMRO published its 2026 Annual Consultation Report on Singapore on 30 September 2026. It projects real GDP growth of 4.8% in 2026, up from AMRO's 2.0% forecast in September 2025 ¹, after 5.0% in 2025 ², and 3.1% in 2027. ³ Real GDP grew 6.1% year on year in the first half of 2026, up from 5.1% in H2 2025, which AMRO attributes to an electronics upcycle driven by AI-related demand. ⁴ Higher oil prices and weaker global demand linked to the Middle East conflict are the main headwinds it cites.

AMRO forecasts headline inflation of 2.1% in 2026, up from 0.9% in 2025 ⁵, and 1.7% in 2027 ⁶. It says underlying pressures remain broadly contained, helped by a stronger Singapore dollar and targeted subsidies.

The official forecast from the Ministry of Trade and Industry is 4.5–5.5%, upgraded from 2.0–4.0% on 11 August 2026, after Q2 growth of 5.9%. ⁷

Analysis

AMRO's 2026 figure sits inside the official range, so the report confirms rather than changes the consensus. The time-series shift is the point: a year ago AMRO expected far slower growth for 2026, and the AI upcycle has more than doubled that projection. The projected step down to 3.1% in 2027 shows how much of this year's growth AMRO treats as cyclical.

For household credit the headline growth is a weak guide. Retrenchments rose to 4,620 in Q2 2026 ⁸ and the six-month re-entry rate fell to 54.9% ⁹, so job losses rose while output accelerated. AMRO's inflation forecast is within the MAS–MTI range of 1.5–2.5% ¹⁰, and energy-led price rises fall hardest on lower-income borrowers. In the region, Singapore's growth is among the strongest AMRO projects, while Cambodia was cut to 3.9% in the October update. ¹¹

Implications

ExecutivesDo not read strong GDP as broad income growth: segment consumer portfolios by sector of employment, since electronics-led gains and rising retrenchments coexist.

InvestorsAMRO treats 2026 as a cyclical peak; underwriting that extrapolates 2026 loan growth into 2027 carries slowdown risk.

OperatorsTrack retrenchment and re-employment by sector alongside early arrears; they lead credit stress better than headline GDP.

Counterpoints and uncertainties

The forecast rests on continued AI-related demand, which can reverse quickly, and on energy prices tied to the Middle East conflict. The published summary gives no household-debt or bank asset-quality figures, so the full report's assessment of household balance sheets is the next thing to watch. A stronger Singapore dollar that contains inflation also weighs on export competitiveness if global demand softens.

Figures: see definitions

AMRO real GDP growth forecast, 2026: 4.8% (up from AMRO's 2.0% forecast in September 2025)
The September 2025 comparison is from AMRO's 2025 consultation release (2026 forecast 2.0%), https://amro-asia.org/singapore-calibrate-policy-mix-to-navigate-global-shifts-and-strengthen-resilience
. AMRO 2026 Annual Consultation Report forecast of Singapore real GDP growth. Singapore, whole economy. Basis date: 30 Sep 2026. Source: AMRO: 2026 Annual Consultation Report on Singapore (2026-09-30)
Real GDP growth, 2025: 5.0%. Singapore real GDP growth in 2025 as reported in AMRO's 2026 consultation report. Singapore, whole economy. Basis date: 31 Dec 2025. Source: AMRO: 2026 Annual Consultation Report on Singapore (2026-09-30)
AMRO real GDP growth forecast, 2027: 3.1%. AMRO 2026 Annual Consultation Report forecast of Singapore real GDP growth. Singapore, whole economy. Basis date: 30 Sep 2026. Source: AMRO: 2026 Annual Consultation Report on Singapore (2026-09-30)
Real GDP growth, H1 2026 (year on year): 6.1% (up from 5.1% in H2 2025). Year-on-year real GDP growth in the first half of 2026, as reported by AMRO. Singapore, whole economy. Basis date: 30 Jun 2026. Source: AMRO: 2026 Annual Consultation Report on Singapore (2026-09-30)
AMRO headline inflation forecast, 2026: 2.1% (up from 0.9% in 2025). AMRO 2026 Annual Consultation Report forecast of Singapore headline CPI inflation. Singapore, national. Basis date: 30 Sep 2026. Source: AMRO: 2026 Annual Consultation Report on Singapore (2026-09-30)
AMRO headline inflation forecast, 2027: 1.7%. AMRO 2026 Annual Consultation Report forecast of Singapore headline CPI inflation. Singapore, national. Basis date: 30 Sep 2026. Source: AMRO: 2026 Annual Consultation Report on Singapore (2026-09-30)
MTI GDP growth forecast, 2026: 4.5–5.5% (upgraded from 2.0–4.0% on 11 August 2026). Official Ministry of Trade and Industry forecast range for 2026 real GDP growth. Singapore, whole economy. Basis date: 11 Aug 2026. Source: SingStat: MTI Upgrades 2026 GDP Growth Forecast to "4.5 to 5.5 Per Cent" (2026-08-11)
Retrenchments: 4,620 (up 790 from 3,830 in Q1 2026). Total retrenchments in the quarter, rounded to the nearest ten. Singapore labour market (MOM). Basis date: 30 Jun 2026. Source: MOM: Labour Market Report 2Q 2026
Six-month re-entry rate of retrenched residents: 54.9% (down 5.8 pp from 60.7% in the previous quarter). Share of retrenched residents re-employed within six months. Singapore labour market (MOM). Basis date: 30 Jun 2026. Source: MOM: Labour Market Report 2Q 2026
MTI/MAS inflation forecast, 2026: 1.5–2.5%. Official forecast range for average 2026 core and headline inflation. Singapore, national. Basis date: 23 Sep 2026. Source: AsiaOne: Singapore core inflation rises to 2.2% in August
AMRO real GDP growth forecast, 2026: 3.9% (revised down from 4.2% (July 2026)). AMRO ASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook, October 2026 quarterly update forecast. Whole economy. Basis date: 5 Oct 2026. Source: AKP: Cambodia's Strong Manufacturing Exports Offset Weak Services Sector: AMRO Chief Economist (2026-10-05)

Sources

Reports are for information only and are not investment advice.