Thai floods hit 940,300 households; state banks offer payment holidays, instalment cuts

Published 30 Sep 2026Data as of 29 Sep 2026ThailandCreditSME

The disaster agency counted 2,602,309 people and 940,300 households affected across 29 provinces plus all 50 Bangkok districts on 29 September
GSB and GHB suspend payments for three months, at 0% interest; Krungthai cuts instalments by 75% for one year
One economist cut his 2026 growth estimate to 2.1% (down from 2.4% before the floods); lenders face a new wave of deferrals

Facts

Scale: Thailand's Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (DDPM) counted 2,602,309 people ¹ and 940,300 households ² affected across 29 provinces plus all 50 Bangkok districts ³ as of 29 September 2026 (up from 576,449 in the government count of 28 September). Sources: Khaosod English (DDPM data); Thailand.go.th.

State banks: the Government Savings Bank (GSB) suspends principal repayments for three months, at 0% interest ⁴ and offers emergency loans up to THB 20,000 per borrower over 24 months ⁵, charged at 0.60% a month (flat) from the fourth month. The Government Housing Bank (GHB) suspends payments for three months, six if the property is severely damaged ⁶. Eligibility is tied to areas declared disaster zones. Source: Nation Thailand (27 September 2026).

Commercial and specialised banks: Krungthai Bank reduces monthly repayments for flood-affected retail and SME borrowers by 75% for one year ⁷, with home and SME term loans charged 0% for three months, then 2.5% a year for 33 months ⁸, and applications open until 31 December 2026; EXIM Bank offers repayment extensions and temporary working-capital increases. Source: Nation Thailand (27 September 2026).

Economic cost: economist Aat Pisanwanich estimates immediate losses of about THB 11 bn ⁹ and lowered his 2026 growth estimate to 2.1% ¹⁰, down from 2.4% before the floods. Source: Thailand Business News (29 September 2026).

Analysis

Over time, this is the second major flood-relief round in under a year. After the southern floods of November 2025, the Bank of Thailand let lenders reduce credit-card minimum payments for up to 12 months ¹¹ and keep the original classification of assisted loans. The new floods reach Bangkok and the central provinces, where household and SME credit is concentrated, so the balance-sheet exposure is larger than in the south.

The relief lands on a book that was already fragile: Thai banks reported a Stage 2 (significant increase in credit risk) ratio of 6.78% ¹² and troubled debt restructurings of THB 720 bn in Q2 2026, and previously restructured loans that defaulted again accounted for THB 52 bn of the about THB 110 bn new NPL inflow that quarter. The ADB growth forecast published on 23 September, before the floods reached Bangkok, was 2.0%.

Implications

ExecutivesExpect payment holidays to delay, not remove, arrears; model re-default rates on flood-restructured loans from the post-2025 southern cohort.

InvestorsState banks carry most relief costs now, but commercial banks with Bangkok retail and SME books face higher Stage 2 migration in Q4 2026.

OperatorsUse disaster-zone declarations and address data to flag affected accounts automatically, and pause collection contact for eligible borrowers.

Counterpoints and uncertainties

Flood counts change daily and may fall quickly if water recedes, and the growth and loss figures are one economist's estimates rather than official forecasts. Whether the Bank of Thailand again allows lenders to keep the original classification of assisted loans will determine how much of the relief shows up in reported NPL and Stage 2 ratios.

Figures: see definitions

People affected by floods (DDPM): 2,602,309 people (up from 1,793,887 in the government count of 28 September)
DDPM count as of 06:00 on 29 September 2026; the 28 September figure is from the government portal and covered fewer provinces.
. People in flood-affected areas counted by the Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation. 29 provinces and Bangkok. Basis date: 29 Sep 2026. Source: Khaosod English: More than 2.6 million people affected by floods across Thailand (DDPM, 2026-09-29)
Households affected by floods (DDPM): 940,300 households (up from 576,449 in the government count of 28 September). Households in flood-affected areas counted by the Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation. 29 provinces and Bangkok. Basis date: 29 Sep 2026. Source: Khaosod English: More than 2.6 million people affected by floods across Thailand (DDPM, 2026-09-29)
Provinces affected by floods (DDPM): 29 provinces plus all 50 Bangkok districts. Provinces with flood-affected areas, DDPM count. Nationwide. Basis date: 29 Sep 2026. Source: Khaosod English: More than 2.6 million people affected by floods across Thailand (DDPM, 2026-09-29)
GSB flood relief: principal payment holiday: three months, at 0% interest. Government Savings Bank suspension of principal repayments for borrowers in declared disaster zones; interest for the period is waived. GSB borrowers in declared disaster zones. Basis date: 27 Sep 2026. Source: Nation Thailand: GSB and GHB offer debt relief and loans for flood victims (2026-09-27)
GSB flood emergency loan, maximum: up to THB 20,000 per borrower over 24 months. Government Savings Bank emergency living-expense loan for flood-affected people; 0% for the first three months. Flood-affected individuals. Basis date: 27 Sep 2026. Source: Nation Thailand: GSB and GHB offer debt relief and loans for flood victims (2026-09-27)
GHB flood relief: payment suspension: three months, six if the property is severely damaged. Government Housing Bank suspension of mortgage payments at 0% interest for borrowers in declared disaster zones. GHB borrowers in declared disaster zones. Basis date: 27 Sep 2026. Source: Nation Thailand: GSB and GHB offer debt relief and loans for flood victims (2026-09-27)
Krungthai flood relief: instalment reduction: 75% for one year. Reduction in monthly repayments for flood-affected retail and SME borrowers; applications 26 September to 31 December 2026. Krungthai retail and SME borrowers. Basis date: 27 Sep 2026. Source: Nation Thailand: Krungthai and EXIM Bank expand aid for flood-hit borrowers (2026-09-27)
Krungthai flood relief: interest rate: 0% for three months, then 2.5% a year for 33 months. Interest rate on Krungthai home loans and SME term loans restructured under the flood relief programme (personal term loans carry a different rate). Krungthai retail and SME borrowers. Basis date: 27 Sep 2026. Source: Nation Thailand: Krungthai and EXIM Bank expand aid for flood-hit borrowers (2026-09-27)
Immediate flood losses, economist estimate: about THB 11 bn. Estimate of immediate nationwide flood losses by economist Aat Pisanwanich. Nationwide. Basis date: 29 Sep 2026. Source: Thailand Business News: Bangkok floods threaten to shave 0.3 percentage points from Thailand’s 2026 growth (2026-09-29)
Real GDP growth forecast after floods, economist estimate (2026): 2.1% (down from 2.4% before the floods). Full-year 2026 growth estimate by economist Aat Pisanwanich. Whole economy. Basis date: 29 Sep 2026. Source: Thailand Business News: Bangkok floods threaten to shave 0.3 percentage points from Thailand’s 2026 growth (2026-09-29)
BoT flood flexibility (Nov 2025): reduced credit-card minimum payment: for up to 12 months. Period for which lenders could reduce credit-card minimum payments for flood-hit borrowers under Bank of Thailand flexibility after the southern floods. Flood-affected borrowers, southern Thailand. Basis date: 25 Nov 2025. Source: Nation Thailand: Thai banks deploy coordinated relief as southern floods devastate region (2025-11-25)
Commercial bank Stage 2 loan ratio: 6.78%. Loans with significant increase in credit risk (TFRS 9 Stage 2) / total loans. Commercial banking system. Basis date: 30 Jun 2026. Source: Bank of Thailand: Banking Sector Quarterly Brief (Q2 2026) (2026-08-18)

Sources

Reports are for information only and are not investment advice.