OJK launches 2026–2030 banking roadmap; August gross NPL edges up to 2.11%

Facts

Roadmap: the Financial Services Authority (OJK) launched the Roadmap Pengembangan dan Penguatan Perbankan Indonesia (RP3I) 2026–2030 in Bali on 2 October 2026. It has five pillars: institutional strengthening and integrity; technology modernisation and digital resilience; financial market deepening and stronger intermediation, including Open Banking–Open Finance; sustainable finance and sustainability risk; and integrated licensing with adaptive supervision. OJK chair Friderica Widyasari Dewi said the roadmap serves as guidance for OJK, banks and stakeholders. OJK also released an updated Climate Risk Management and Scenario Analysis framework (CRMS 2026) at the same event.

Banking data: OJK said bank credit grew 13.65% year on year in August (up from 13.58% in July). ¹ The gross NPL ratio was 2.11% (up from 2.10% in July). ² The capital adequacy ratio was 24.1%. ³

Risks named by OJK: the chair pointed to artificial intelligence, cloud computing and other technologies, and to climate-related risks to borrowers' repayment capacity, and listed cybersecurity, operational resilience, data protection and consumer protection as priorities.

Analysis

Time series: the gross NPL ratio has stayed in a narrow band since March (chart), so August's reading is a flat outcome rather than a turn in asset quality, even as OJK-reported credit growth quickened to 13.65% (up from 13.58% in July; 13.3% on Bank Indonesia's money-survey basis). Fast loan growth can flatter NPL ratios for a while because new loans have not yet had time to default; the test comes once this year's new lending has seasoned.

Cross-country: Indonesia's 2.11% sits between Malaysia's gross impaired loans ratio of 1.4% in August ⁴ and the Philippine banking-industry NPL ratio of 3.35% in July. ⁵ Definitions differ across regulators, so the levels are indicative rather than strictly comparable.

Mix: the expansion is led by corporate and investment credit, while bank consumer credit grew only 5.0% in August. ⁶ The roadmap's emphasis on Open Banking–Open Finance and ecosystem links between banks and digital platforms is the part most relevant to consumer lending, because shared account and transaction data is what lets lenders underwrite thin-file borrowers.

Implications

Counterpoints and uncertainties

The roadmap is a direction-setting document; its effect depends on the implementing regulations, their timing and their cost for smaller banks. Aggregate NPL ratios can hide stress in consumer, BNPL and smaller-bank portfolios, and the gap between OJK-reported and BI-reported credit growth reflects different coverage that readers should not mix.