ADB cuts Cambodia's 2026 growth forecast to 3.9% as tourist arrivals slump

Facts

Growth: in its Asian Development Outlook September 2026 (23 September 2026), the Asian Development Bank (ADB) cut Cambodia's 2026 real GDP growth forecast to 3.9% ¹ (revised down from 4.1% (July 2026)), citing tourism below pre-pandemic levels and continuing border disruption. It expects growth of 4.7% in 2027. Source: ADB ADO September 2026, Southeast Asia chapter.

Tourism and exports: international visitor arrivals were 1.8 million ² in January–June 2026 (down 47.9% from H1 2025). Garment exports reached USD 8bn ³ (up 6.3% from H1 2025), and non-garment manufactured exports grew +38.4% ⁴. Source: Phnom Penh Post (2026-09-23), citing ADB.

Prices: inflation rose to 7.2% ⁵ in May (up from 2.6% in February 2026) and eased to 5.5% in July. ADB forecasts average inflation of 4.7% ⁶ in 2026 and 2.8% in 2027. Source: as above.

Analysis

Across the region, the ADB's 2026 forecast for Cambodia (3.9%) sits below Laos (4.0%) and far below Vietnam (7.8%), but above Thailand (2.0%) and Myanmar (2.2%). The sharpest contrast is tourism: Cambodia's arrivals fell (down 47.9% from H1 2025) while Laos recorded 2.6 million (up 9.9% from H1 2025) over the same half-year.

For household credit, the split matters. Export manufacturing is holding up, so formal wage income in factories is more resilient than income in transport, hospitality and small trade linked to visitors and the Thai border. That second group overlaps with the borrowers behind a rising NPL ratio (9.6% in June 2026, up from 8.4% at end-June 2025) and with the remittance decline already recorded for 2025 (−23.6% y/y).

Implications

Counterpoints and uncertainties

ADB expects a recovery to 4.7% in 2027, and inflation has already eased from its May peak, so pressure on repayment may be temporary. Several figures (arrivals, exports, inflation path) come from a media report of the ADB publication rather than the ADB table itself.