IMF Board keeps Cambodia 2026 growth at 3.0%, says forbearance exit exposed asset strains

Facts

Outlook: the IMF Executive Board concluded the 2026 Article IV consultation with Cambodia on 28 September 2026. The Fund projects real GDP growth of 3.0% ¹ in 2026, unchanged from the July 2026 staff mission, after 5.3% ² in 2025, and 4.0% ³ in 2027. It names higher energy costs, weaker tourism and remittances, slowing garment exports, subdued domestic demand and tighter financial conditions as drags. Average inflation is projected at 5.6% ⁴ in 2026, driven first by energy prices before broadening. The current account deficit is projected to widen sharply in 2026. Sources: IMF Executive Board press release; Phnom Penh Post.

Financial sector: the IMF states that "the end of regulatory forbearance has exposed asset-quality strains" amid continued real-estate weakness, and that financial vulnerabilities have heightened although systemic risks remain contained. It warns that a sharper real-estate correction could amplify losses through concentrated bank exposures, developer financing and weaker repayment capacity, and calls for timely risk recognition, adequate provisioning and credible capital planning. It describes the broadly stable riel–dollar exchange rate as the main nominal anchor and says market-based operations and deeper interbank markets would support gradual de-dollarisation. Sources: IMF Executive Board press release; Phnom Penh Post.

Analysis

Across forecasters, the IMF is more cautious than the Asian Development Bank, which put 2026 growth at 3.9% ⁵ and inflation at 4.7% on 23 September. The gap matters for credit models that use GDP or inflation as macro overlays: the IMF case implies lower real income growth for borrowers in 2026.

Over time, the asset-quality warning is consistent with the NBC's own data: the NPL ratio of banks and financial institutions rose from 7.4% at end-2024 to 8.9% at end-2025 and 9.6% ⁶ in June 2026, while restructured loans were 8.3% ⁷ of loans at end-2025. With forbearance ended, part of that restructured book can move into NPL classification, which is the mechanism behind the IMF's call for provisioning and capital planning.

Implications

Counterpoints and uncertainties

The IMF also judges systemic risks contained, reserves adequate and public debt at low risk of distress, with resilient FDI and reserves as buffers, and planned fiscal stimulus could lift growth above the projection. The press release gives no new NPL or restructured-loan figures; the scale of reclassification will show in the NBC's full-year 2026 data, expected around late January 2027.