AMRO cuts Cambodia's 2026 growth forecast to 3.9% as non-garment exports outpace services

Published 6 Oct 2026Data as of 5 Oct 2026CambodiaMacro & households

AMRO lowered its 2026 growth forecast for Cambodia to 3.9% (revised down from 4.2% (July 2026)) and kept 2027 at 4.9%
Non-garment manufacturing exports grew +37.3% in January–August, against +6.7% for garments, while tourism and real estate stay weak
AMRO now matches ADB's 3.9%; the IMF is lower at 3.0%, and AMRO expects inflation of 4.9% this year

Facts

Forecast: in its October 2026 quarterly update of the ASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook, the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) projects Cambodia's real GDP growth at 3.9% ¹ in 2026, revised down from 4.2% (July 2026), and 4.9% ² in 2027, unchanged from July 2026. AMRO chief economist Dong He presented the figures at a news conference in Singapore on 5 October (AKP).

Inflation: AMRO expects headline inflation of 4.9% ³ in 2026 (revised down from 5.1%) and 3.0% ⁴ in 2027 (revised up from 2.8%).

Drivers: in the first eight months of 2026, non-garment manufacturing exports rose +37.3% ⁵ (vs +16.8% growth in 2025) and garment exports +6.7% ⁶. Dong He pointed to weak tourism and real estate, and to legacy non-performing loans in the financial system, as issues to address (AKP).

Region: AMRO keeps its ASEAN+3 growth forecast for 2026 at 4.1% ⁷, unchanged from July 2026, citing stronger AI-related exports and investment, while higher energy costs and El Niño-related food prices push inflation up (AMRO).

Analysis

Three official forecasters now cluster in a narrow, low band. AMRO's 3.9% equals ADB's September forecast of 3.9% ⁸, while the IMF Board's 3.0% ⁹ is the most cautious. On inflation, AMRO's 4.9% sits between ADB's 4.7% ¹⁰ and the IMF's 5.6% ¹¹, after consumer price inflation of 5.5% ¹² in July.

Against the region, Cambodia's 2026 forecast is below AMRO's ASEAN+3 average of 4.1%. The growth mix matters for credit: factory-linked export income is expanding, while tourism and real estate, which carry a large share of household and SME borrowing, remain weak. With the banking-sector NPL ratio at 9.6% ¹³ at end-June, a recovery led by manufacturing does little for borrowers whose income depends on tourism or property.

Implications

ExecutivesPlan 2026–2027 budgets on growth near 3.9%, not on a rebound, and weight new lending toward employers and sectors tied to non-garment manufacturing.

InvestorsTreat the convergence of AMRO and ADB at 3.9% as the consensus base case, with the IMF's 3.0% as the downside marker.

OperatorsSegment portfolios by income source: factory payroll borrowers are on the improving side of the economy, while tourism and property-linked borrowers still need tighter monitoring.

Counterpoints and uncertainties

The headline figures come from a news-conference report; AMRO's full country table may show different rounding or detail. Non-garment export growth starts from a smaller base and depends on external demand and trade policy, which can shift quickly. Inflation near 4.9% erodes real wages, which could offset part of the income gain from factory jobs.

Figures: see definitions

AMRO real GDP growth forecast, 2026: 3.9% (revised down from 4.2% (July 2026)). AMRO ASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook, October 2026 quarterly update forecast. Whole economy. Basis date: 5 Oct 2026. Source: AKP: Cambodia's Strong Manufacturing Exports Offset Weak Services Sector: AMRO Chief Economist (2026-10-05)
AMRO real GDP growth forecast, 2027: 4.9% (unchanged from July 2026). AMRO ASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook, October 2026 quarterly update forecast. Whole economy. Basis date: 5 Oct 2026. Source: AKP: Cambodia's Strong Manufacturing Exports Offset Weak Services Sector: AMRO Chief Economist (2026-10-05)
AMRO inflation forecast, 2026: 4.9% (revised down from 5.1%). AMRO October 2026 quarterly update forecast of headline consumer price inflation. Whole economy. Basis date: 5 Oct 2026. Source: AKP: Cambodia's Strong Manufacturing Exports Offset Weak Services Sector: AMRO Chief Economist (2026-10-05)
AMRO inflation forecast, 2027: 3.0% (revised up from 2.8%). AMRO October 2026 quarterly update forecast of headline consumer price inflation. Whole economy. Basis date: 5 Oct 2026. Source: AKP: Cambodia's Strong Manufacturing Exports Offset Weak Services Sector: AMRO Chief Economist (2026-10-05)
Non-garment manufacturing exports, Jan–Aug (AMRO): +37.3% (vs +16.8% growth in 2025). Year-on-year growth of non-garment manufacturing exports, first eight months of 2026, as cited by AMRO. Merchandise exports. Basis date: 31 Aug 2026. Source: AKP: Cambodia's Strong Manufacturing Exports Offset Weak Services Sector: AMRO Chief Economist (2026-10-05)
Garment exports, Jan–Aug (AMRO): +6.7% (year on year, first eight months of 2026). Year-on-year growth of garment exports, first eight months of 2026, as cited by AMRO. Merchandise exports. Basis date: 31 Aug 2026. Source: AKP: Cambodia's Strong Manufacturing Exports Offset Weak Services Sector: AMRO Chief Economist (2026-10-05)
AMRO ASEAN+3 GDP growth forecast, 2026: 4.1% (unchanged from July 2026). AMRO ASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook, October 2026 quarterly update forecast for the ASEAN+3 region. ASEAN+3 region. Basis date: 5 Oct 2026. Source: AMRO: Quarterly Update of the ASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook, October 2026 (2026-10-05)
ADB real GDP growth forecast, 2026: 3.9% (revised down from 4.1% (July 2026)). ADB Asian Development Outlook September 2026 forecast. Whole economy. Basis date: 23 Sep 2026. Source: ADB: Developing Southeast Asia, Asian Development Outlook September 2026 (2026-09-23)
IMF real GDP growth projection, 2026: 3.0% (unchanged from the July 2026 staff mission)
July value from the IMF staff mission statement of 2026-07-07.
. IMF 2026 Article IV projection of real GDP growth. Whole economy. Basis date: 28 Sep 2026. Source: IMF: Executive Board concludes 2026 Article IV consultation with Cambodia (Press Release 26/307, 2026-09-28)
ADB consumer inflation forecast, 2026 (average): 4.7% (revised up from ADB's earlier projection)
Value as reported by the Phnom Penh Post citing ADB; the earlier ADB value was not stated in that report.
. ADB Asian Development Outlook September 2026 forecast, annual average. Whole economy. Basis date: 23 Sep 2026. Source: Phnom Penh Post: ADB cuts Cambodia's 2026 growth forecast to 3.9% amid tourism slowdown (2026-09-23)
IMF inflation projection, 2026 (average): 5.6%. IMF 2026 Article IV projection of average consumer price inflation. Whole economy. Basis date: 28 Sep 2026. Source: IMF: Executive Board concludes 2026 Article IV consultation with Cambodia (Press Release 26/307, 2026-09-28)
Consumer price inflation, July 2026 (y/y): 5.5% (down from 7.2% in May 2026). Year-on-year CPI change as cited by ADB. Whole economy. Basis date: 31 Jul 2026. Source: Phnom Penh Post: ADB cuts Cambodia's 2026 growth forecast to 3.9% amid tourism slowdown (2026-09-23)
NBC NPL ratio (semi-annual, latest): 9.6% (up from 8.4% at end-June 2025)
NBC primary document not located on nbc.gov.kh; figure as reported by Xinhua from the NBC semi-annual report released 28 July 2026.
. Non-performing loans as a share of total loans, banking system. Banks and financial institutions supervised by NBC. Basis date: 30 Jun 2026. Source: NBC semi-annual report H1 2026 (via Xinhua, 2026-07-28)

Sources

Reports are for information only and are not investment advice.