Lesson 5 of 6

Cash-flow signals that predict repayment, and how to test them

Lessons 1 to 4 turned a statement into measures: income, essential spending, debts, volatility and buffers. Not every measure predicts whether a loan will be repaid, and a measure that looks convincing can mislead. This lesson lists the signals lenders look at, what research has found about account data and default, and how to test a signal on a lender's own loans before using it.

Published 20 October 2026