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Myanmar's kyat weakens to about MMK 4,670 per USD on the informal market in the week of the central bank borrowing vote

Published Data as of MyanmarMacro & households
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Key points

Implications for lenders

Lenders in Myanmar may need to reflect a weaker kyat in underwriting for borrowers whose costs follow the informal rate of about MMK 4,670 per USD rather than the official MMK 2,100 per USD, for example in affordability checks for traders and importers. With the IMF projecting average inflation of 20.0% for 2026, loan pricing and collection plans may need more frequent review while currency pressure lasts.

Implications

ExecutivesA widening gap between the official and informal rates raises the kyat cost of imported inputs and can squeeze borrowers' margins before it appears in official data.
InvestorsThe approval of central bank borrowing appears to move the currency even before any drawdown, so drawdown disclosures and the informal rate are signals to track together.
OperatorsLenders with kyat loan books may see real loan values erode with inflation and higher repayment stress among borrowers who depend on imported goods or fuel.

Facts

Exchange rates: The Irrawaddy reported the unofficial market rate at about MMK 4,670 per USD 1 on 15 October, against about MMK 4,450 per USD 2 earlier in October. That is about 4.9% more kyat per dollar 3 within the month. Mizzima, via Burma News International, put the open-market rate at about MMK 4,600 per USD 4 on 14 October, from MMK 4,495 on 12 October. The central bank's official rate is MMK 2,100 per USD 5, unchanged for three years, and The Irrawaddy cited an interbank rate of MMK 3,660 per USD 6. The informal rate for the Thai baht rose to MMK 139 per baht 7, from MMK 129.

Borrowing: on 14 October parliament approved net borrowing of up to MMK 2.1 trillion 8 from the central bank for the 2026-27 deficit. According to The Irrawaddy, Deputy Governor Thet Htun Aung said the government had raised nearly MMK 14 trillion 9 through treasury bill and bond auctions before the vote; the report does not give the period. A deputy finance minister said the government is working to reduce reliance on central bank financing and is developing tax policies.

Central bank statement: on 18 October the Central Bank of Myanmar, in a statement released through the Ministry of Information, said social media reports of a new MMK 50,000 10 banknote were false and that no such issue was planned. It said it was working with law enforcement to act against people whose rumours destabilise market prices, and named price stability as its main objective. The statement did not name the laws involved.

Analysis

Time series: Moemaka reports that the informal rate had been relatively stable at about MMK 4,300–4,400 per USD 11 for roughly two to three years, so a move to about MMK 4,670 per USD breaks out of that range. Before February 2021 the market rate was under MMK 1,300 per USD 12. The gap to the official rate is now about 2.2 times 13, so prices of imported goods, which trade closer to the informal rate, can rise while official figures stay unchanged.

Funding context: the central bank financed 70.81% 14 of the deficit in 2024-25 and 7.82% 15 in 2025-26, and it buys treasury bills at 4% 16. The market reaction suggests that the approval itself, not only actual drawdowns, shapes expectations about money supply and the currency.

Cross-country comparison: the IMF projects Myanmar's average inflation at 20.0% 17 in 2026, while Laos, which has also faced currency weakness, recorded year-on-year inflation of 7.8% 18 in September. The measures differ (an annual-average projection against a monthly reading), but the gap points to considerably faster price growth in Myanmar.

Counterpoints and uncertainties

The exchange rates are traders' quotes reported by media, not an official series, and the reports give slightly different levels for the same week. State media reported that central bank lending would occur only if monthly deficits persist, so actual central bank financing may stay small, as it did in 2025-26. Authorities have acted against currency traders during earlier slides, which can push quotes down temporarily without changing underlying pressure.

Key figures

  1. Kyat informal market rate: about MMK 4,670 per USD (from about MMK 4,450 earlier in October). Kyat per US dollar on the unofficial market, as reported by The Irrawaddy. Unofficial (parallel) market. Basis date: 15 Oct 2026. Source: The Irrawaddy: Kyat slides again as regime wins approval for 2.1 trillion-kyat borrowing plan (2026-10-15)
  2. Kyat informal market rate, earlier in October: about MMK 4,450 per USD
    The report says 'earlier in October' without an exact date.
    . Kyat per US dollar on the unofficial market earlier in October 2026, as reported by The Irrawaddy. Unofficial (parallel) market. Basis date: 15 Oct 2026. Source: The Irrawaddy: Kyat slides again as regime wins approval for 2.1 trillion-kyat borrowing plan (2026-10-15)
  3. Kyat informal rate move in October (T&S calculation): about 4.9% more kyat per dollar. T&S calculation: change from about MMK 4,450 to about MMK 4,670 per USD on the unofficial market (The Irrawaddy figures). Unofficial (parallel) market. Basis date: 15 Oct 2026. Source: The Irrawaddy: Kyat slides again as regime wins approval for 2.1 trillion-kyat borrowing plan (2026-10-15)
  4. Kyat open-market rate, 14 October: about MMK 4,600 per USD (from MMK 4,495 on 12 October). Kyat per US dollar on the open market on 14 October 2026, as reported by Mizzima/BNI. Open (unofficial) market. Basis date: 14 Oct 2026. Source: BNI (originally Mizzima): Central bank threatens legal action over 50,000-kyat banknote rumours amid deficit financing (2026-10-20)
  5. Central Bank of Myanmar official reference rate: MMK 2,100 per USD (unchanged for three years). Official CBM rate, kyat per US dollar. Official rate. Basis date: 20 Oct 2026. Source: BNI (originally Mizzima): Central bank threatens legal action over 50,000-kyat banknote rumours amid deficit financing (2026-10-20)
  6. Kyat interbank rate: MMK 3,660 per USD
    The report does not give the date of the interbank quote; the basis date is the report date.
    . Interbank kyat per US dollar rate cited by The Irrawaddy. Interbank market. Basis date: 15 Oct 2026. Source: The Irrawaddy: Kyat slides again as regime wins approval for 2.1 trillion-kyat borrowing plan (2026-10-15)
  7. Thai baht informal rate in kyat: MMK 139 per baht (from MMK 129)
    The report gives no dates for the two baht quotes.
    . Kyat per Thai baht on the unofficial market, as reported by The Irrawaddy. Unofficial (parallel) market. Basis date: 15 Oct 2026. Source: The Irrawaddy: Kyat slides again as regime wins approval for 2.1 trillion-kyat borrowing plan (2026-10-15)
  8. Approved central bank borrowing, 2026-27: up to MMK 2.1 trillion. Net borrowing estimate from the Central Bank of Myanmar to cover the Union Government's 2026-27 deficit, approved by the Pyidaungsu Hluttaw. Union Government, fiscal year 2026-27. Basis date: 14 Oct 2026. Source: Global New Light of Myanmar: Pyidaungsu Hluttaw discusses taxation, loans, budgets (2026-10-15)
  9. Funds raised through treasury bill and bond auctions: nearly MMK 14 trillion
    The report does not state the period over which this amount was raised.
    . Amount raised through treasury bill and bond auctions before the 14 October borrowing vote, according to CBM Deputy Governor Thet Htun Aung (via The Irrawaddy). Union Government domestic debt auctions. Basis date: 14 Oct 2026. Source: The Irrawaddy: Kyat slides again as regime wins approval for 2.1 trillion-kyat borrowing plan (2026-10-15)
  10. Denomination in the banknote rumour denied by the central bank: MMK 50,000. Banknote denomination that the Central Bank of Myanmar said on 18 October would not be issued. Currency issuance. Basis date: 18 Oct 2026. Source: BNI (originally Mizzima): Central bank threatens legal action over 50,000-kyat banknote rumours amid deficit financing (2026-10-20)
  11. Kyat informal rate range over the previous two to three years: about MMK 4,300–4,400 per USD
    Moemaka states this as its own background without naming a source or exact dates; value field is the midpoint of the range.
    . Range at which the informal rate was relatively stable for roughly two to three years before October 2026, per Moemaka. Unofficial (parallel) market. Basis date: 30 Sep 2026. Source: Moemaka: Myanmar kyat depreciates amid growing instability, raising concerns over rising consumer prices (2026-10-16)
  12. Kyat market rate before February 2021: under MMK 1,300 per USD
    The Irrawaddy says 'less than 1,300' before the coup; Moemaka puts the rate at about 1,400 at the time of the coup in early 2021.
    . Kyat per US dollar before February 2021, as stated by The Irrawaddy. Market rate. Basis date: 31 Jan 2021. Source: The Irrawaddy: Kyat slides again as regime wins approval for 2.1 trillion-kyat borrowing plan (2026-10-15)
  13. Informal rate as a multiple of the official rate (T&S calculation): about 2.2 times. T&S calculation: about MMK 4,670 (informal, The Irrawaddy) divided by MMK 2,100 (official CBM rate). Unofficial vs official rate. Basis date: 15 Oct 2026. Source: The Irrawaddy: Kyat slides again as regime wins approval for 2.1 trillion-kyat borrowing plan (2026-10-15)
  14. Central bank share of deficit financing, 2024-25: 70.81%. Share of the Union Government deficit financed by the Central Bank of Myanmar in 2024-25, as stated in parliament. Union Government, fiscal year 2024-25. Basis date: 31 Mar 2025. Source: Global New Light of Myanmar: Pyidaungsu Hluttaw discusses taxation, loans, budgets (2026-10-15)
  15. Central bank share of deficit financing, 2025-26: 7.82% (down from 70.81% in 2024-25). Share of the Union Government deficit financed by the Central Bank of Myanmar in 2025-26, as stated in parliament. Union Government, fiscal year 2025-26. Basis date: 31 Mar 2026. Source: Global New Light of Myanmar: Pyidaungsu Hluttaw discusses taxation, loans, budgets (2026-10-15)
  16. Rate at which the central bank buys treasury bills: 4%. Interest rate at which the Central Bank of Myanmar buys government treasury bills under the 2022-23 to 2026-27 agreement. Central Bank of Myanmar lending to the Union Government. Basis date: 14 Oct 2026. Source: Global New Light of Myanmar: Pyidaungsu Hluttaw discusses taxation, loans, budgets (2026-10-15)
  17. IMF consumer price inflation projection, annual average, 2026 (WEO October 2026): 20.0% (against 21.1% in 2025). IMF projection of annual average consumer price change for 2026, WEO October 2026, Table A7. Myanmar, whole economy. Basis date: 13 Oct 2026. Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2026: Online Statistical Appendix Tables A4 (real GDP) and A7 (consumer prices)
  18. CPI inflation, y/y: 7.8% (up from 7.7% in August)
    Released by the Lao Statistics Bureau on 29 September 2026. Xinhua’s report gives 7.8% in its headline and 7.9% in its body text; the Laotian Times gives 7.8%.
    . Year-on-year change in the consumer price index. Nationwide. Basis date: 30 Sep 2026. Source: Laotian Times: Laos inflation rises to 7.8 percent in September as education, utility costs climb (2026-09-29)

Sources

  1. The Irrawaddy: Kyat slides again as regime wins approval for 2.1 trillion-kyat borrowing plan (2026-10-15)
  2. BNI (originally Mizzima): Central bank threatens legal action over 50,000-kyat banknote rumours amid deficit financing (2026-10-20)
  3. Moemaka: Myanmar kyat depreciates amid growing instability (2026-10-16)
  4. Global New Light of Myanmar: Pyidaungsu Hluttaw discusses taxation, loans, budgets (2026-10-14)
  5. IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2026: Statistical Appendix Table A7primary
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A Japanese version of this article is available: 日本語版

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