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Timor-Leste survey: poverty fell to 37.0% in 2024, but inequality rose

Published Data as of Timor-LesteMacro & households
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Key points

Implications for lenders

For lenders in Timor-Leste, a rural poverty rate of 44.5% against 18.4% in towns suggests underwriting and loan sizing may need to differ by area rather than rely on national averages. A rising Gini of 0.36 means consumption is spread more unevenly across households, so cash-flow checks on individual borrowers can matter more than location-based scoring.

Implications

ExecutivesPoverty is now concentrated in rural municipalities, so outreach strategies built around Dili reach a shrinking share of low-income households.
InvestorsLower poverty and near-universal electricity widen the base for digital financial services, but rising inequality means average figures overstate the typical borrower's capacity.
OperatorsMunicipality-level poverty rates can be used to set loan sizes, branch or agent coverage and repayment schedules by area.

Facts

Timor-Leste's National Institute of Statistics (INETL) and the Ministry of Finance presented the Summary Poverty Report of the 2024 Timor-Leste Survey of Living Standards (TLSLS) on 20 October 2026. The survey ran from April to October 2024 and is representative nationally and by municipality.

The share of people below the national poverty line was 37.0%, down from a comparable 48.4% in 2014. 1 The line is USD 2.31 per person a day, based on the cost of essential goods. 2 About about 523,000 people were below it. 3

Rural poverty was 44.5% and urban poverty 18.4%. 4 5 about 86% of poor people live in rural areas. 6 In Dili municipality the rate was 17.1%. 7 Poverty fell in most municipalities; Aileu and Liquiçá were exceptions.

Inequality widened: the Gini coefficient of consumption was 0.36, up from a comparable 0.31 in 2014. 8 Access to services improved; the share of households without electricity was 1.7%, down from 27.9% in 2014. 9

Analysis

The drop in poverty is measured against a 2014 figure re-estimated on the 2024 method. The rate originally published for 2014 was 41.8%, 10 so the comparable series, not the old headline, is the right reference point.

Laos published a similar household survey in July. Its poverty rate was 15.0% 11 and its consumption Gini 34.7 (expressed in points rather than as a fraction). 12 National poverty lines differ, so the levels are not directly comparable, but the direction differs: inequality in Laos has fallen from its 2018–19 peak, while in Timor-Leste it has risen over the decade.

The survey's rural concentration contrasts with where bank credit goes. In June 2026, individuals took 43.9% of bank credit and agriculture 1.5%, according to central bank figures reported by TATOLI. 13 With about 86% of poor people in rural areas, bank credit that reaches rural households is more likely to come as lending to individuals than as farm lending.

Counterpoints and uncertainties

The figures come from a summary report and press coverage of its launch; the full report may revise detail. The 2014 comparison depends on the re-estimated baseline, and the published 2014 rate was lower. Poverty is measured on consumption, not income or debt, so the survey says nothing directly about household borrowing or repayment capacity. Timor-Leste's economy depends on Petroleum Fund spending, so budget changes could shift household consumption quickly.

Key figures

  1. Poverty rate (national line): 37.0% (down from a comparable 48.4% in 2014)
    The 2014 comparison uses INETL's re-estimate of 2014 on the 2024 method; the poverty rate originally published for 2014 was lower. Survey fieldwork April–October 2024; basis date is the report presentation.
    . Share of people below the national poverty line, TLSLS 2024 (INETL). Timor-Leste, TLSLS 2024 household survey. Basis date: 20 Oct 2026. Source: TATOLI (2026-10-21): Timor-Leste poverty rate falls to 37%, but economic inequality widens (reporting the INETL TLSLS 2024 Summary Poverty Report)
  2. National poverty line: USD 2.31 per person a day. Cost of essential goods per person per day used for the national poverty line, TLSLS 2024. Timor-Leste, TLSLS 2024 household survey. Basis date: 20 Oct 2026. Source: TATOLI (2026-10-21): Timor-Leste poverty rate falls to 37%, but economic inequality widens (reporting the INETL TLSLS 2024 Summary Poverty Report)
  3. People below the national poverty line: about 523,000. Number of people below the national poverty line, TLSLS 2024. Timor-Leste, TLSLS 2024 household survey. Basis date: 20 Oct 2026. Source: TATOLI (2026-10-21): Timor-Leste poverty rate falls to 37%, but economic inequality widens (reporting the INETL TLSLS 2024 Summary Poverty Report)
  4. Rural poverty rate: 44.5%. Share of rural residents below the national poverty line, TLSLS 2024 (INETL). Timor-Leste, TLSLS 2024 household survey. Basis date: 20 Oct 2026. Source: TATOLI (2026-10-21): Timor-Leste poverty rate falls to 37%, but economic inequality widens (reporting the INETL TLSLS 2024 Summary Poverty Report)
  5. Urban poverty rate: 18.4%. Share of urban residents below the national poverty line, TLSLS 2024 (INETL). Timor-Leste, TLSLS 2024 household survey. Basis date: 20 Oct 2026. Source: TATOLI (2026-10-21): Timor-Leste poverty rate falls to 37%, but economic inequality widens (reporting the INETL TLSLS 2024 Summary Poverty Report)
  6. Share of poor people living in rural areas: about 86%. Rural residents as a share of all people below the national poverty line, TLSLS 2024. Timor-Leste, TLSLS 2024 household survey. Basis date: 20 Oct 2026. Source: TATOLI (2026-10-21): Timor-Leste poverty rate falls to 37%, but economic inequality widens (reporting the INETL TLSLS 2024 Summary Poverty Report)
  7. Poverty rate, Dili municipality: 17.1%. Share of Dili municipality residents below the national poverty line, TLSLS 2024. Timor-Leste, TLSLS 2024 household survey. Basis date: 20 Oct 2026. Source: TATOLI (2026-10-21): Timor-Leste poverty rate falls to 37%, but economic inequality widens (reporting the INETL TLSLS 2024 Summary Poverty Report)
  8. Gini coefficient: 0.36 (up from a comparable 0.31 in 2014)
    The 2014 comparison uses INETL's comparable re-estimate of 2014 on the 2024 method. Survey fieldwork April–October 2024; basis date is the report presentation.
    . Gini coefficient of household consumption on a 0–1 scale, TLSLS 2024. Timor-Leste, TLSLS 2024 household survey. Basis date: 20 Oct 2026. Source: TATOLI (2026-10-21): Timor-Leste poverty rate falls to 37%, but economic inequality widens (reporting the INETL TLSLS 2024 Summary Poverty Report)
  9. Households without electricity: 1.7% (down from 27.9% in 2014). Share of households without access to electricity, TLSLS 2024. Timor-Leste, TLSLS 2024 household survey. Basis date: 20 Oct 2026. Source: TATOLI (2026-10-21): Timor-Leste poverty rate falls to 37%, but economic inequality widens (reporting the INETL TLSLS 2024 Summary Poverty Report)
  10. Poverty rate as originally published for 2014: 41.8%. Share of people below the national poverty line as originally published for TLSLS 2014 (pre-2024 method). Timor-Leste, TLSLS 2014 household survey. Basis date: 20 Oct 2026. Source: IndexBox (2026-10-20, citing INETL): Timor-Leste poverty falls to 37% in 2024 as inequality rises
  11. Poverty rate (national line): 15.0% (down from 18.3% in 2018–19)
    Survey round 2024–25 (fieldwork across 2024 and 2025); comparison with 2018–19 uses the 2018–19 methodology. Basis date is the report launch.
    . Share of people below the national poverty line, LECS 2024–25 (2018–19 method), LSB and World Bank. Lao PDR, LECS 2024–25 household survey. Basis date: 22 Jul 2026. Source: Lao Statistics Bureau and World Bank: Poverty Profile in the Lao PDR, report launch (2026-07-22)
  12. Gini coefficient (consumption): 34.7 (down from a peak of 38.8 in 2018–19)
    Survey round 2024–25 (fieldwork across 2024 and 2025); comparison with 2018–19 uses the 2018–19 methodology. Basis date is the report launch.
    . Gini coefficient of household consumption, LECS 2024–25. Lao PDR, LECS 2024–25 household survey. Basis date: 22 Jul 2026. Source: Lao Statistics Bureau and World Bank: Poverty Profile in the Lao PDR, report launch (2026-07-22)
  13. Agriculture share of bank credit: 1.5%. Credit to agriculture as a share of total bank credit (BCTL, as reported by TATOLI). Timor-Leste banking system. Basis date: 30 Jun 2026. Source: TATOLI: Setór agrikultura hetan de'it 1,5% husi totál kréditu millaun $768 (2026-09-10), reporting a BCTL presentation

Sources

  1. INETL (2026-10-20): Summary Poverty Report, TLSLS 2024 (release page)primary
  2. TATOLI (2026-10-21): Timor-Leste poverty rate falls to 37%, but economic inequality widens
  3. IndexBox (2026-10-20, citing INETL): Timor-Leste poverty falls to 37% in 2024 as inequality rises
  4. Human Progress (2026-10-21): Poverty falls as access to basic services improves in Timor-Leste
  5. Lao Statistics Bureau and World Bank: Poverty Profile in the Lao PDR (2026-07-22)primary
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A Japanese version of this article is available: 日本語版

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