ADB cuts Brunei's 2026 growth forecast to 1.2%

Implications

Facts

In the Southeast Asia chapter of the Asian Development Outlook September 2026, published on 23 September 2026, ADB lowered Brunei's 2026 real GDP growth forecast to 1.2% (cut from 1.8% in the July outlook). It forecasts 1.9% for 2027 (source: ADB). ¹ ADB said increased hydrocarbon (oil and gas) production does not fully offset weakness in the non-oil sector (source: ADB).

In the same report, the 2026 forecast for Southeast Asia is 4.7% (raised from 4.6% in the July outlook), for Timor-Leste 4.0% (raised from 3.8% in the July outlook) and for Cambodia 3.9% (cut from 4.1% in the July outlook) (source: ADB).

Analysis

Regionally, Brunei's 1.2% is about a quarter of the Southeast Asian average of 4.7%, and the downgrade is large. Growth in the resource sector alongside a weak non-oil sector indicates limited diversification. Household effects are likely to diverge between workers in oil and gas or the public sector and those in the private non-oil sector.

Counterpoints and uncertainties

The forecast depends heavily on oil and gas output and prices and could surprise on the upside. The ADB report does not address household debt or arrears in Brunei, so it gives no indication of how slower growth will affect credit quality.