AMRO projects Brunei growth of 1.9% in 2026, above ADB's 1.2%, on an energy windfall

Implications for lenders

If AMRO's 1.9% growth materialises, it comes mainly through energy revenue and public spending, so credit demand may rise first among contractors and government-linked borrowers. Underwriting for firms that depend on development projects may need to allow for longer payment cycles while 91 of 305 RKN12 projects remain in design. AMRO's push for access to finance and digital financial inclusion can widen the market for small-business and household lending, which calls for data beyond payroll records.

Implications

Facts

The ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) published a staff analysis on 8 October 2026, 'Brunei's Energy Windfall: An Opportunity to Strengthen Economic Resilience', by Poh Lynn Ng and Ravi Balakrishnan. It puts Brunei's real GDP growth at 1.0% in 2025 ¹ and projects 1.9% in 2026 ², with growth averaging 1.8–2.0% a year over the medium term. ³ AMRO links the improvement to the surge in oil and LNG prices after the Middle East conflict began this year; it expects the current account surplus to widen to almost 20% of GDP in 2026 ⁴ and stronger oil and gas revenue to narrow the fiscal deficit, without giving a deficit figure.

AMRO notes that non-oil-and-gas exports rose from 11% of total exports in 2017 ⁵ to over 60% in 2025. ⁶ It also reports that 91 of 305 projects under the Twelfth National Development Plan (RKN12) were still in the design phase. ⁷

AMRO's recommendations are to use the higher revenue to strengthen fiscal buffers, gradually reduce current spending, target subsidies better, contain public wage growth and prepare a broad-based consumption tax; to prioritise and speed up development projects; and to promote private-sector activity by simplifying trade procedures, improving access to finance, including digital financial inclusion, and addressing skills mismatches, with priority on agri-food, tourism, ICT and services.

Analysis

The two regional forecasters now differ on timing. ADB's September outlook put Brunei's 2026 growth at 1.2% and 2027 at 1.9% ⁸; AMRO's 1.9% for 2026 brings that pickup forward by a year. The source of growth matters for lenders: a windfall from energy prices lands first in government revenue and the external surplus, not in household incomes, so private credit demand depends on how quickly the state spends it and on whether delayed projects move out of design.

Non-oil-and-gas exports rose from 11% of the total in 2017 to over 60% in 2025, but AMRO's analysis does not show how much of that reached small firms. AMRO's call for better access to finance and digital inclusion points at the segment where Brunei's banks have the least data: small businesses and households outside the public payroll. Banks' financing to businesses stood at BND 6.2 bn in the first half of 2026. ⁹

Counterpoints and uncertainties

AMRO's projection depends on oil and LNG prices that rose because of a conflict; a reversal would cut both growth and fiscal revenue. AMRO gives no figure for the fiscal deficit or for credit, so the link from the windfall to private lending is a judgement, not a measured effect. ADB's lower forecast is a reminder that the pickup may come later than AMRO expects.