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Inflation for the poorest Filipino households rises to 9.0% in September

Published Data as of PhilippinesMacro & householdsUnsecured
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Key points

Implications

ExecutivesTreat low-income segments as facing materially higher inflation than the headline rate when setting 2027 credit budgets.
InvestorsExpect asset-quality pressure first in lenders concentrated on low-income and salary-loan borrowers; look for segment-level arrears disclosure.
OperatorsUse PSA's low-income CPI rather than headline CPI in affordability buffers, and watch early arrears where food is a large share of spending.

Facts

Low-income households: the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) reported that inflation for households in the bottom three income deciles was 9.0% in September (up from 8.2% in August). 1 National headline inflation was 7.2%. 2

Year to date: average inflation for the first nine months of 2026 was 5.4% (up from 5.2% for January–August), 3 against a government target range of 2–4%. 4

Food: food and non-alcoholic beverages inflation was 6.7%, 5 driven mainly by the index for vegetables, tubers, plantains, cooking bananas and pulses, which rose 10.7% year on year. 6 PSA also reported faster increases for rice, bread and cereals, and fish.

Analysis

Time series: the gap between low-income and national inflation widened in September. In August, inflation for these households was 8.2% 7 against a national rate of 6.1%; 8 in September it was 9.0% against 7.2%. The year-to-date average rose from 5.2% for January–August 9 to 5.4%, so 2026 inflation is set to finish well outside the target band.

Cross-country: national inflation in Indonesia was 3.28% in September 10 and in Malaysia 1.9% in August. 11 Low-income Filipino households are therefore facing price growth far above their neighbours' national averages.

Credit link: these households had thin buffers before the second inflation peak. In a BSP survey, 48% of adults said emergency funds would be very hard to raise, 12 and banks' consumer-loan NPL ratio was already 5.49% in July. 13 Salary loans, microfinance and small-ticket digital credit serve this segment most.

Headline CPI inflation (%)
024684.12026-037.22026-046.82026-056.42026-066.22026-076.12026-087.22026-09
Headline CPI inflation (%)
2026-034.1
2026-047.2
2026-056.8
2026-066.4
2026-076.2
2026-086.1
2026-097.2

Year-on-year change in the national consumer price index (PSA, 2018=100), monthly · Source: Philippine Statistics Authority, Summary Inflation Reports (2026-03, 2026-04, 2026-05, 2026-06, 2026-07, 2026-08, 2026-09)

Counterpoints and uncertainties

Vegetable prices swing quickly and could reverse once supply recovers, narrowing the gap with headline inflation. Remittances, wage adjustments and government transfers can offset part of the squeeze, so higher low-income inflation does not translate one-for-one into defaults.

Key figures

  1. CPI inflation, bottom 30% income households (PSA): 9.0% (up from 8.2% in August). Year-on-year change in the CPI for the bottom 30% income households. Philippines, national. Basis date: 30 Sep 2026. Source: PSA: Summary Inflation Report CPI for the Bottom 30% Income Households (2018=100), September 2026
  2. Headline CPI inflation (PSA): 7.2% (up from 6.1% in August; matches April 2026). Year-on-year change in the consumer price index. Philippines, national. Basis date: 30 Sep 2026. Source: Inquirer: PH inflation climbs to 7.2% in September (2026-10-06)
  3. Average CPI inflation, January–September: 5.4% (up from 5.2% for January–August). Average of monthly year-on-year headline CPI inflation, January–September 2026. Philippines, national. Basis date: 30 Sep 2026. Source: SunStar: PH inflation jumps to 7.2% in September (2026-10-06)
  4. Government inflation target: 2–4%. Official inflation target range. Philippines, national. Basis date: 4 Sep 2026. Source: GMA News: Inflation slows down for fourth straight month at 6.1% in August
  5. Food and non-alcoholic beverages inflation (PSA): 6.7% (up from 4.6% in August). Year-on-year change in the CPI for food and non-alcoholic beverages. Philippines, national. Basis date: 30 Sep 2026. Source: Inquirer: PH inflation climbs to 7.2% in September (2026-10-06)
  6. Vegetables, tubers and pulses inflation (PSA): 10.7%. Year-on-year change in the CPI for vegetables, tubers, plantains, cooking bananas and pulses. Philippines, national. Basis date: 30 Sep 2026. Source: SunStar: PH inflation jumps to 7.2% in September (2026-10-06)
  7. CPI inflation, bottom 30% income households (PSA): 8.2%. Year-on-year change in the CPI for the bottom 30% income households. Philippines, national. Basis date: 31 Aug 2026. Source: PSA: Summary Inflation Report CPI for the Bottom 30% Income Households (2018=100), September 2026
  8. Headline CPI inflation (PSA): 6.1% (down from 6.2% in July; fourth consecutive monthly slowdown). Year-on-year change in the consumer price index. Philippines, national. Basis date: 31 Aug 2026. Source: GMA News: Inflation slows down for fourth straight month at 6.1% in August
  9. Average CPI inflation, January–August: 5.2%. Average of monthly year-on-year CPI inflation, January–August 2026. Philippines, national. Basis date: 31 Aug 2026. Source: GMA News: Inflation slows down for fourth straight month at 6.1% in August
  10. Headline CPI inflation (BPS): 3.28% (up from 3.19% in August). Year-on-year change in the consumer price index. Indonesia, national. Basis date: 30 Sep 2026. Source: ANTARA: Inflasi tahunan RI capai 3,28 persen pada September 2026 (2026-10-01, BPS data)
  11. Headline CPI inflation (DOSM): 1.9% (up from 1.8% in July). Year-on-year change in the consumer price index (DOSM). Malaysia, national. Basis date: 31 Aug 2026. Source: The Star: Malaysia's inflation rises to 1.9% in August (2026-09-18, DOSM data)
  12. Adults finding emergency funds very difficult to raise: 48%
    BSP Consumer Finance and Inclusion Survey 2025.
    . Share of adults saying raising funds for an unexpected expense would be very difficult. Adults, Philippines. Basis date: 31 Dec 2025. Source: Fintech News Philippines: 48% of Filipinos Can't Easily Raise Emergency Funds, BSP Says (2026-09-18)
  13. Consumer loan NPL ratio: 5.49% (up from 5.44% in June). Non-performing consumer loans as a share of consumer loans (BSP data). Philippine banking system. Basis date: 31 Jul 2026. Source: Inquirer: Bad loans up amid continuing consumer strain (2026-09-09)

Sources

  1. PSA: Summary Inflation Report CPI for the Bottom 30% Income Households (2018=100), September 2026primary
  2. PSA: Consumer Price Index and Inflation Rate (release page)primary
  3. Philstar: Philippine inflation jumps to 7.2% in September 2026 (2026-10-06)
  4. SunStar: PH inflation jumps to 7.2% in September (2026-10-06)
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Reports are for information only and are not investment advice.

A Japanese version of this article is available: 日本語版

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