T&S Asset Management
Listen日本語

Vietnam credit growth at about 12.27%, SBV Governor says, as HCMC FX loans rise 42%

Published Data as of VietnamCredit
Listen0:00

The article read by an AI voice.

Key points

Implications for lenders

With credit growth at about 12.27% and about 2.7 percentage points left to the guideline, banks may tighten or reprice credit lines to non-bank lenders late in the year, so funding plans for the year-end peak may need a buffer. Lenders to exporters in Ho Chi Minh City, where foreign-currency loans rose 42%, can test repayment capacity against exchange-rate moves.

Implications

ExecutivesBanks near their growth room may ration credit in the last two months of the year, so partners that rely on bank funding lines should confirm availability early.
InvestorsGrowth of about 12.27% so far this year supports loan volumes and fee income, but asset quality needs watching after a year of rapid expansion.
OperatorsForeign-currency borrowing is rising fast from a small base in Ho Chi Minh City; lenders to exporters should check currency mismatch in borrowers' cash flows.

Facts

National credit: credit outstanding to the whole economy was about VND 20.8 quadrillion on 26 October 2026 1, up 11.94% from end-2025 2, according to State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) data reported on 30 October. Addressing the National Assembly on 31 October, the SBV Governor said system credit growth had reached about 12.27% 3; the reported remarks do not name the base period.

Ho Chi Minh City: the SBV branch covering Ho Chi Minh City estimates credit outstanding in the city at about VND 5,854 trillion at end-October 4, up 12.4% from end-2025 5 and 18.2% year on year 6. Foreign-currency loans were about VND 288 trillion 7, up 42% from end-2025, and made up 4.9% of the city's credit 8. The branch said lending continued to prioritise production, business and key growth sectors.

Analysis

Over time: year-to-date credit growth was 8.38% on 29 July 9 and 11.59% on 30 September 10, then slipped to 11.44% on 14 October 11 before recovering to 11.94% on 26 October. The early-October dip and late-month rebound fit a quarter-end pattern rather than a lasting slowdown. With about 12.27% reached, meeting the guideline of about 15% 12 needs about 2.7 percentage points more in November and December 13 (T&S calculation); the full-year history is in the chart.

Within Vietnam: Ho Chi Minh City's 12.4% is close to the national pace, so the city is not the main source of acceleration. The sharp rise in its foreign-currency loans, from a small base, is the outlier and coincides with strong trade flows.

Across the Mekong: Vietnamese credit was growing 16.73% year on year in mid-October 14, against 2.0% for Thai commercial bank loans in the second quarter 15. The periods differ, but the gap shows how far apart credit cycles in the two economies are.

Credit growth by calendar year (%)
0510152014.18202213.71202315.08202419.012025
Credit growth by calendar year (%)
202214.18
202313.71
202415.08
202519.01

Credit of the credit-institution system, growth over the calendar year (end-December vs previous end-December), State Bank of Vietnam figures as reported in the press · Source: State Bank of Vietnam full-year figures, as reported by Vietnamese media (2022, 2023, 2024, 2025) Revised full-year figures are used for 2022 and 2023 (first reported at 14.5% and about 13.5%). The 2026 year-to-date figure is not part of this series.

Counterpoints and uncertainties

The Governor's figure comes from reported remarks to the National Assembly without a stated base, and the Ho Chi Minh City figures are estimates. Inflation of 5.09% 16 and the SBV's push for lower lending rates may pull in different directions, and the SBV could allow growth beyond the guideline or slow it to protect asset quality.

Key figures

  1. Credit outstanding to the economy (26 October 2026): about VND 20.8 quadrillion (against about VND 20.75 quadrillion on 30 September). Credit outstanding to the whole economy, State Bank of Vietnam data. Credit institution system. Basis date: 26 Oct 2026. Source: Thi truong Tai chinh Tien te: Credit to the whole economy exceeds VND 20.8 quadrillion, concentrated in production and business (2026-10-30, citing SBV)
  2. System credit growth, year to date (26 October 2026): 11.94% (up from 11.44% on 14 October). Growth of credit outstanding to the whole economy since end-2025, State Bank of Vietnam data. Credit institution system. Basis date: 26 Oct 2026. Source: Thi truong Tai chinh Tien te: Credit to the whole economy exceeds VND 20.8 quadrillion, concentrated in production and business (2026-10-30, citing SBV)
  3. System credit growth stated by the SBV Governor on 31 October 2026: about 12.27%
    The reported statement names neither the base period nor the cut-off date; the SBV's other 2026 readings are measured against end-2025.
    . Credit growth of the whole credit-institution system, as stated by SBV Governor Pham Duc An to the National Assembly on 31 October 2026. Credit institution system. Basis date: 31 Oct 2026. Source: VnBusiness: Credit accelerates past VND 20 quadrillion as capital flows to production and business (2026-11-04, SBV Governor at the National Assembly on 31 October)
  4. Ho Chi Minh City credit outstanding (end-October 2026, estimate): about VND 5,854 trillion. Estimated credit outstanding of credit institutions in Ho Chi Minh City, SBV Region 2 branch. Credit institutions in Ho Chi Minh City. Basis date: 31 Oct 2026. Source: Thi truong Tai chinh Tien te: Ho Chi Minh City credit, end-October 2026 estimate (Nguyen Duc Lenh, SBV Region 2 branch, 2026-11-05)
  5. Ho Chi Minh City credit growth, year to date (end-October 2026, estimate): 12.4%. Growth of estimated credit outstanding in Ho Chi Minh City since end-2025, SBV Region 2 branch. Credit institutions in Ho Chi Minh City. Basis date: 31 Oct 2026. Source: Thi truong Tai chinh Tien te: Ho Chi Minh City credit, end-October 2026 estimate (Nguyen Duc Lenh, SBV Region 2 branch, 2026-11-05)
  6. Ho Chi Minh City credit growth, year on year (end-October 2026, estimate): 18.2%. Year-on-year growth of estimated credit outstanding in Ho Chi Minh City, SBV Region 2 branch. Credit institutions in Ho Chi Minh City. Basis date: 31 Oct 2026. Source: Thi truong Tai chinh Tien te: Ho Chi Minh City credit, end-October 2026 estimate (Nguyen Duc Lenh, SBV Region 2 branch, 2026-11-05)
  7. Ho Chi Minh City foreign-currency loans (end-October 2026, estimate): about VND 288 trillion (up 42% from end-2025). Estimated foreign-currency loans outstanding in Ho Chi Minh City, SBV Region 2 branch. Credit institutions in Ho Chi Minh City. Basis date: 31 Oct 2026. Source: Thi truong Tai chinh Tien te: Ho Chi Minh City credit, end-October 2026 estimate (Nguyen Duc Lenh, SBV Region 2 branch, 2026-11-05)
  8. Foreign-currency share of Ho Chi Minh City credit (end-October 2026): 4.9%. Foreign-currency loans as a share of total credit outstanding in Ho Chi Minh City, SBV Region 2 branch. Credit institutions in Ho Chi Minh City. Basis date: 31 Oct 2026. Source: Thi truong Tai chinh Tien te: Ho Chi Minh City credit, end-October 2026 estimate (Nguyen Duc Lenh, SBV Region 2 branch, 2026-11-05)
  9. System credit growth, year to date: 8.38%. Growth of credit outstanding versus end-2025. Banking system. Basis date: 29 Jul 2026. Source: VietnamPlus: Vietnam to roll out 8.4 billion USD preferential loan scheme (2026-08-04)
  10. System credit growth, year to date (30 September 2026): 11.59% (up from 10.24% on 17 September and 8.38% on 29 July). Growth of credit outstanding since end-2025, as stated by the SBV. Credit institution system. Basis date: 30 Sep 2026. Source: CafeF: Deputy Governor Pham Thanh Ha — credit at 30/9 reaches VND 20.75 quadrillion, up 11.59% (2026-10-03)
  11. System credit growth, year to date (14 October 2026): 11.44% (against 11.59% on 30 September). Growth of credit outstanding to the economy since end-2025, as stated at the SBV meeting with credit institutions on 19 October 2026. Credit institution system. Basis date: 14 Oct 2026. Source: VTV: Governor asks banks to consider cutting rates on outstanding and new loans (2026-10-19)
  12. SBV 2026 credit growth guideline: about 15%. Indicative full-year credit growth target set by the State Bank of Vietnam. Banking system. Basis date: 23 Sep 2026. Source: ADB: Developing Southeast Asia, Asian Development Outlook September 2026 (2026-09-23)
  13. Gap between end-October credit growth and the 2026 guideline (T&S calculation): about 2.7 percentage points
    Assumes the Governor's figure is measured against end-2025, like the SBV's other 2026 readings.
    . T&S calculation: SBV guideline of about 15% minus the about 12.27% growth stated by the SBV Governor on 31 October. Credit institution system. Basis date: 31 Oct 2026. Source: VnBusiness: Credit accelerates past VND 20 quadrillion as capital flows to production and business (2026-11-04, SBV Governor at the National Assembly on 31 October)
  14. System credit growth, year on year (14 October 2026): 16.73%. Year-on-year growth of credit outstanding to the economy, as stated at the SBV meeting with credit institutions on 19 October 2026. Credit institution system. Basis date: 14 Oct 2026. Source: VTV: Governor asks banks to consider cutting rates on outstanding and new loans (2026-10-19)
  15. Commercial bank loan growth, y/y: 2.0%. Year-on-year growth of commercial bank loans. Commercial banking system. Basis date: 30 Jun 2026. Source: Bank of Thailand: Banking Sector Quarterly Brief (Q2 2026) (2026-08-18)
  16. CPI inflation, October 2026: 5.09% (up 0.20% month on month and 4.41% above December 2025). Consumer price index, year on year, Statistics Office. National. Basis date: 31 Oct 2026. Source: VietnamPlus: October CPI up 0.20%, mainly on fuel price increases (2026-11-03, citing the Statistics Office)

Sources

  1. Thi truong Tai chinh Tien te: Credit to the whole economy exceeds VND 20.8 quadrillion, concentrated in production and business (2026-10-30, citing SBV)
  2. VnBusiness: Credit accelerates past VND 20 quadrillion as capital flows to production and business (2026-11-04, SBV Governor at the National Assembly on 31 October)
  3. Thi truong Tai chinh Tien te: Ho Chi Minh City credit, end-October 2026 estimate (Nguyen Duc Lenh, SBV Region 2 branch, 2026-11-05)
  4. SGGP: Foreign-currency lending in Ho Chi Minh City surges 42 percent in ten months (2026-11-05)
Weekly email

SEA Lending Brief

A weekly summary of lending, credit and regulation across Southeast Asia.

We will email you a link to confirm. Unsubscribe at any time. Privacy policy

Reports are for information only and are not investment advice.

A Japanese version of this article is available: 日本語版

More on Vietnam

12 Nov 2026 · CreditVietnam's banking-system loan-to-deposit ratio eases to 76.07% at end-September as reliance on short-term funds falls11 Nov 2026 · Macro & householdsVietnam's central bank starts regular spot dollar purchases at VND 25,500 per USD to add dong liquidity11 Nov 2026 · CreditVietnam's lending to individuals grows at about half the corporate pace as listed-bank NPLs edge up to 2.09%

Vietnam overview: key indicators and all articles →