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Hong Kong retail sales rise +6.4% in September, but third-quarter sales are flat on the quarter

Published Data as of Hong KongMacro & households
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Key points

Implications for lenders

Lenders with motor-vehicle portfolios may see fewer new applications after car sales fell -34.7% and can review origination targets accordingly. With quarterly sales flat at -0.1% despite +6.4% annual growth, underwriting can lean on borrowers' income and repayment data rather than headline consumption growth.

Implications

ExecutivesConsumer lenders in Hong Kong can treat the headline growth with caution: quarterly sales were flat and supermarkets and department stores declined.
InvestorsThe strongest gains were in visitor-sensitive categories such as jewellery, so consumer-credit volumes may track tourism as well as resident income.
OperatorsThe rising online share supports checkout-linked instalment and card products, while vehicle-loan pipelines may shrink with car sales.

Facts

The Census and Statistics Department (C&SD) reported on 3 November 2026 that the provisional value of total retail sales in September 2026 was HKD 33.4 bn 1, up +6.4% year on year, up from +5.6% in August 2026 (revised). 2 Volume, after price changes, rose +3.9%, up from +2.9% in August 2026 (revised). 3 C&SD said this was the 17 months run of year-on-year gains. 4 For January–September, value was up +8.3% 5 and volume +5.9%. 6

On a seasonally adjusted basis, the value of sales in the third quarter changed -0.1% from the second quarter. 7 By outlet type, jewellery, watches and valuable gifts rose +20.3% 8, while supermarkets fell -1.0% 9, department stores -4.1% 10 and motor vehicles and parts -34.7%. 11 Online sales rose +12.0%, up from +9.9% in August 2026 (revised) 12, and accounted for 13.1% of total value. 13 A government spokesman said solid economic expansion and growth in labour earnings would bolster local consumption, with mega-events and inbound tourism adding momentum.

Analysis

Year-on-year growth has picked up two months in a row: +5.6% in August (up from +4.5% in July 2026) and +6.4% in September. The seasonally adjusted quarterly change of -0.1%, however, shows sales broadly flat in level terms, suggesting the annual rates partly reflect a weaker base a year earlier. Value growth also ran ahead of volume, so part of the gain is price rather than quantity. This matches the national accounts: real GDP grew 5.2% in the third quarter, but private consumption only 2.8%. 14

Hong Kong's retail growth compares with +0.7% in Singapore in August 15, where spending has been weaker. Within Hong Kong, C&SD described growth as broad-based, but the strongest gain was in jewellery, watches and valuable gifts (+20.3%), a category sensitive to visitor spending, while supermarkets and department stores declined. The steeper fall in motor vehicle sales, from -22.0% in August to -34.7% in September, is the clearest negative signal for vehicle finance.

Counterpoints and uncertainties

The figures are provisional and can be revised; August was revised in this release. Retail sales include visitor spending, so they do not isolate resident household demand. A single quarter of flat seasonally adjusted sales does not establish a trend, and the government expects events and tourism to lift sales in the coming months.

Key figures

  1. Retail sales value, September 2026: HKD 33.4 bn. Provisional total value of retail sales in the month (C&SD). Hong Kong retail outlets. Basis date: 30 Sep 2026. Source: Census and Statistics Department via info.gov.hk: Provisional statistics of retail sales for September 2026 (2026-11-03)
  2. Retail sales value, year on year (September 2026): +6.4% (up from +5.6% in August 2026 (revised)). Year-on-year change in the provisional value of total retail sales (C&SD). Hong Kong retail outlets. Basis date: 30 Sep 2026. Source: Census and Statistics Department via info.gov.hk: Provisional statistics of retail sales for September 2026 (2026-11-03)
  3. Retail sales volume, year on year (September 2026): +3.9% (up from +2.9% in August 2026 (revised)). Year-on-year change in the provisional volume of total retail sales, after price changes (C&SD). Hong Kong retail outlets. Basis date: 30 Sep 2026. Source: Census and Statistics Department via info.gov.hk: Provisional statistics of retail sales for September 2026 (2026-11-03)
  4. Consecutive months of year-on-year retail sales growth, to September 2026: 17 months. Number of consecutive months in which retail sales value rose year on year (C&SD). Hong Kong retail outlets. Basis date: 30 Sep 2026. Source: Census and Statistics Department via info.gov.hk: Provisional statistics of retail sales for September 2026 (2026-11-03)
  5. Retail sales value, January–September 2026, year on year: +8.3%. Year-on-year change in the provisional value of retail sales for the first nine months of 2026 (C&SD). Hong Kong retail outlets. Basis date: 30 Sep 2026. Source: Census and Statistics Department via info.gov.hk: Provisional statistics of retail sales for September 2026 (2026-11-03)
  6. Retail sales volume, January–September 2026, year on year: +5.9%. Year-on-year change in the provisional volume of retail sales for the first nine months of 2026 (C&SD). Hong Kong retail outlets. Basis date: 30 Sep 2026. Source: Census and Statistics Department via info.gov.hk: Provisional statistics of retail sales for September 2026 (2026-11-03)
  7. Retail sales value, Q3 2026 vs Q2 2026 (seasonally adjusted): -0.1%. Seasonally adjusted value of retail sales in Q3 2026 compared with Q2 2026 (C&SD). Hong Kong retail outlets. Basis date: 30 Sep 2026. Source: Census and Statistics Department via info.gov.hk: Provisional statistics of retail sales for September 2026 (2026-11-03)
  8. Retail sales of jewellery, watches and valuable gifts, year on year (September 2026): +20.3%. Year-on-year change in the value of retail sales of jewellery, watches and clocks, and valuable gifts (C&SD). Hong Kong retail outlets. Basis date: 30 Sep 2026. Source: Census and Statistics Department via info.gov.hk: Provisional statistics of retail sales for September 2026 (2026-11-03)
  9. Supermarket sales, year on year (September 2026): -1.0%. Year-on-year change in the value of retail sales in supermarkets (C&SD). Hong Kong retail outlets. Basis date: 30 Sep 2026. Source: Census and Statistics Department via info.gov.hk: Provisional statistics of retail sales for September 2026 (2026-11-03)
  10. Department store sales, year on year (September 2026): -4.1%. Year-on-year change in the value of retail sales in department stores (C&SD). Hong Kong retail outlets. Basis date: 30 Sep 2026. Source: Census and Statistics Department via info.gov.hk: Provisional statistics of retail sales for September 2026 (2026-11-03)
  11. Retail sales of motor vehicles and parts, year on year (September 2026): -34.7%. Year-on-year change in the value of retail sales of motor vehicles and parts (C&SD). Hong Kong retail outlets. Basis date: 30 Sep 2026. Source: Census and Statistics Department via info.gov.hk: Provisional statistics of retail sales for September 2026 (2026-11-03)
  12. Online retail sales value, year on year (September 2026): +12.0% (up from +9.9% in August 2026 (revised)). Year-on-year change in the provisional value of online retail sales (C&SD). Hong Kong retail outlets. Basis date: 30 Sep 2026. Source: Census and Statistics Department via info.gov.hk: Provisional statistics of retail sales for September 2026 (2026-11-03)
  13. Online sales share of retail sales value (September 2026): 13.1%. Online sales value as a share of total retail sales value in the month (C&SD). Hong Kong retail outlets. Basis date: 30 Sep 2026. Source: Census and Statistics Department via info.gov.hk: Provisional statistics of retail sales for September 2026 (2026-11-03)
  14. Private consumption expenditure, Q3 2026 (real, year on year): 2.8% (2.9% in Q2 2026)
    Advance estimate; revised figures are due on 13 November 2026.
    . Year-on-year real growth of private consumption expenditure, advance estimate (C&SD). Hong Kong, whole economy. Basis date: 30 Sep 2026. Source: Hong Kong Government press release: Advance estimates on Gross Domestic Product for third quarter of 2026 (2026-11-03, C&SD)
  15. Retail sales, year on year (August 2026): +0.7% (down from +1.3% in July 2026 (revised))
    July revision as reported by FX.co (2026-10-05); June 2026 was +4.1% per AsiaOne.
    . Year-on-year change in the retail sales index at current prices (SingStat). Singapore retail trade. Basis date: 31 Aug 2026. Source: AsiaOne (2026-10-05), citing SingStat: Retail sales post slower growth in August 2026

Sources

  1. Census and Statistics Department via info.gov.hk: Provisional statistics of retail sales for September 2026 (2026-11-03)primary
  2. Reuters via TradingView (2026-11-03): Hong Kong September retail sales rise 6.4% on year, outlook positive
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A Japanese version of this article is available: 日本語版

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