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Indonesia's consumer confidence edges down to 118.1 in September; instalment share of income eases

Published Data as of IndonesiaMacro & households
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Key points

Implications for lenders

With instalments at 9.7% of income and the saving share down to 15.4%, borrowers have less cushion if prices or incomes move against them. Underwriting can weight recent income stability and existing obligations more heavily, especially for lower-spending and older applicants, where confidence fell in September.

Implications

ExecutivesDemand is holding but savings buffers are thinning; favour products with smaller tickets and shorter tenors for lower-income segments.
InvestorsA stable instalment share suggests no near-term debt-service shock across surveyed households, but falling savings increase sensitivity to an income or price shock.
OperatorsTrack repayment behaviour for older and lower-spending customers, where confidence fell most in September.

Facts

Survey: Bank Indonesia's (BI) September 2026 Consumer Survey, reported on 8 October, put the consumer confidence index at 118.1 (down from 118.5 in August 2026). 1 The expectations index rose to 128.7 (up from 127.6 in August 2026), 2 while the current economic conditions index fell to 107.5 (down from 109.4 in August 2026). 3 BI said consumer confidence remained maintained; readings above the index's neutral level indicate optimism.

Household budgets: the average share of income spent on consumption was 74.9% (up from 74.2% in August 2026), 4 the saving share 15.4% (down from 15.8% in August 2026) 5 and the share used for loan instalments 9.7% (down from 10.0% in August 2026). 6

By group: confidence in the lowest monthly-spending group surveyed fell to 107.1 (down from 108.2 in August 2026). 7 Among the oldest age group surveyed the index fell to 98.1 (down from 108.5 in August 2026), below the optimism threshold. 8

Analysis

Time series: the index has drifted down through 2026, from 127 in January 9 to 120.9 in May 10 and 116.8 in July, 11 before a partial rebound in August and a small dip in September. The share of income going to instalments was 10.2% in May, 12 so September's 9.7% shows no rising debt-service burden in the survey. The saving share, by contrast, keeps falling: households are spending more of their income rather than borrowing more.

Credit link: bank consumer credit grew 5.0% in August 13 and inflation rose to 3.28% in September. 14 Slower credit growth with a lower instalment share and thinner savings points to households absorbing higher prices from income and savings, which reduces the buffer available if incomes weaken.

Cross-country: Indonesia's index remains in optimistic territory, while the Philippines' Q3 consumer confidence index was −29.8%, still negative. 15 The two surveys use different scales, so only the direction is comparable.

Counterpoints and uncertainties

The survey covers urban households in selected cities and reports averages; it does not show the distribution of debt service, and borrowers of online lenders may differ from the survey sample. A monthly fall this small is within normal survey variation. Further rises in inflation toward the top of BI's target band could weigh on confidence in coming months.

Key figures

  1. Consumer confidence index (BI): 118.1 (down from 118.5 in August 2026). Bank Indonesia Consumer Survey confidence index; above 100 = optimistic. Indonesia, urban households in surveyed cities. Basis date: 30 Sep 2026. Source: Bisnis.com: Survei BI — Keyakinan Konsumen Turun pada September 2026 (2026-10-08)
  2. Consumer expectations index (BI): 128.7 (up from 127.6 in August 2026). Expectations component of BI's consumer confidence index (six months ahead). Indonesia. Basis date: 30 Sep 2026. Source: Bisnis.com: Survei BI — Keyakinan Konsumen Turun pada September 2026 (2026-10-08)
  3. Current economic conditions index (BI): 107.5 (down from 109.4 in August 2026). Current-conditions component of BI's consumer confidence index. Indonesia. Basis date: 30 Sep 2026. Source: Bisnis.com: Survei BI — Keyakinan Konsumen Turun pada September 2026 (2026-10-08)
  4. Consumption share of income (BI survey): 74.9% (up from 74.2% in August 2026). Average share of income spent on consumption, BI Consumer Survey. Indonesia. Basis date: 30 Sep 2026. Source: Bisnis.com: Survei BI — Keyakinan Konsumen Turun pada September 2026 (2026-10-08)
  5. Saving share of income (BI survey): 15.4% (down from 15.8% in August 2026). Average share of income saved, BI Consumer Survey. Indonesia. Basis date: 30 Sep 2026. Source: Bisnis.com: Survei BI — Keyakinan Konsumen Turun pada September 2026 (2026-10-08)
  6. Debt instalment share of income (BI survey): 9.7% (down from 10.0% in August 2026). Average share of income used for loan instalments, BI Consumer Survey. Indonesia. Basis date: 30 Sep 2026. Source: Bisnis.com: Survei BI — Keyakinan Konsumen Turun pada September 2026 (2026-10-08)
  7. Consumer confidence, households spending Rp1–2 million a month: 107.1 (down from 108.2 in August 2026). BI consumer confidence index for the lowest monthly-spending group surveyed (Rp1–2 million). Indonesia. Basis date: 30 Sep 2026. Source: Bisnis.com: Survei BI — Keyakinan Konsumen Turun pada September 2026 (2026-10-08)
  8. Consumer confidence, respondents aged over 60: 98.1 (down from 108.5 in August 2026). BI consumer confidence index for respondents aged over 60; below 100 = pessimistic. Indonesia. Basis date: 30 Sep 2026. Source: Bisnis.com: Survei BI — Keyakinan Konsumen Turun pada September 2026 (2026-10-08)
  9. Consumer confidence index (BI): 127. Bank Indonesia Consumer Survey confidence index; above 100 = optimistic. Indonesia. Basis date: 31 Jan 2026. Source: Bisnis.com: Survei BI — Keyakinan Konsumen Turun pada September 2026 (2026-10-08)
  10. Consumer confidence index (BI): 120.9 (down from 123.0 in April 2026). Bank Indonesia Consumer Survey confidence index; above 100 = optimistic. Indonesia. Basis date: 31 May 2026. Source: Bank Indonesia: Survei Konsumen Mei 2026
  11. Consumer confidence index (BI): 116.8. Bank Indonesia Consumer Survey confidence index; above 100 = optimistic. Indonesia. Basis date: 31 Jul 2026. Source: Bank Indonesia press release: Survei Konsumen Agustus 2026 — Keyakinan Konsumen Meningkat (2026-09-09)
  12. Debt instalment share of income (BI survey): 10.2% (up from 9.7% in April 2026). Average share of income used for loan instalments, BI Consumer Survey. Indonesia. Basis date: 31 May 2026. Source: Bank Indonesia: Survei Konsumen Mei 2026
  13. Consumer credit growth (BI, YoY): 5.0% (down from 5.3% in July 2026)
    Bank Indonesia's money-survey credit series (loans only; excludes debt securities and bankers' acceptances). Differs from OJK's commercial-bank series. Headline total growth confirmed in BI's release (bi.go.id, checked 2026-09-29); segment breakdowns from media reports citing BI (Kontan, Industry.co.id), which agree.
    . Year-on-year growth of bank consumption loans (kredit konsumsi), BI money survey. Indonesia, banking system (BI money-survey basis). Basis date: 31 Aug 2026. Source: Industry.co.id: Uang Beredar Agustus 2026 Tumbuh 8,2%, Kredit Perbankan Makin Terakselerasi (2026-09-24), citing Bank Indonesia
  14. Headline CPI inflation (BPS): 3.28% (up from 3.19% in August). Year-on-year change in the consumer price index. Indonesia, national. Basis date: 30 Sep 2026. Source: ANTARA: Inflasi tahunan RI capai 3,28 persen pada September 2026 (2026-10-01, BPS data)
  15. Consumer confidence index, current quarter: −29.8% (up from −42.0% in Q2 2026)
    BSP Consumer Expectations Survey.
    . Share of optimistic minus share of pessimistic respondents. 5,476 households nationwide. Basis date: 30 Sep 2026. Source: Inquirer: PH consumers, firms turn less gloomy

Sources

  1. Bank Indonesia: Survei Konsumen Mei 2026primary
  2. Bank Indonesia press release: Survei Konsumen Agustus 2026 — Keyakinan Konsumen Meningkat (2026-09-09)primary
  3. Bisnis.com: Survei BI — Keyakinan Konsumen Turun pada September 2026 (2026-10-08)
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A Japanese version of this article is available: 日本語版

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