Indonesian retail sales growth stays weak as retailers' price expectations rise
A one-minute summary read by an AI voice.
Key points
- Bank Indonesia's real sales index rose 1.3% year on year in August (up from 1.1% in July), the second month of growth after −3.0% in June.
- Retailers expect year-on-year growth of 1.4% in September, but a month-on-month change of −2.3%.
- The price expectations index for February 2027 rose to 177.9 (up from 166.0 for January 2027 in the previous survey), with September inflation at 3.28%.
Implications for lenders
With real retail sales up only 1.3% in August and retailers' price expectations rising to 177.9, borrowers' disposable income may come under pressure into early 2027. Consumer and BNPL lenders can review affordability buffers in credit scoring and watch early arrears among lower-income segments, while funding costs may stay elevated if inflation limits rate cuts.
Implications
Facts
Sales: Bank Indonesia's Retail Sales Survey, released on 9 October, shows the Real Sales Index up 1.3% year on year in August, up from 1.1% in July. 1 July growth of 1.1% came after a 3.0% contraction in June. 2 Month on month, sales rose 0.8% in August, after a 0.1% decline in July. 3
Outlook: from retailers' responses, Bank Indonesia expects September sales growth of 1.4% year on year 4 and a month-on-month change of −2.3%. 5
Prices: the price expectations index for three months ahead (November 2026) rose to 149.9, up from 146.5 for October 2026 in the previous survey, 6 and the six-month index (February 2027) to 177.9, up from 166.0 for January 2027 in the previous survey. 7 A higher index means more retailers expect prices to rise.
Analysis
Time series: real sales moved from −3.0% in June to 1.1% in July and 1.3% in August, a recovery from contraction but still slow growth. Headline inflation reached 3.28% in September, 8 and retailers' six-month price expectations rose to 177.9, so households face rising prices while real spending grows only slightly.
Household indicators point the same way: Bank Indonesia's consumer confidence index slipped to 118.1 in September (down from 118.5 in August 2026), 9 and the share of income spent on instalments was 10.0% in August (down 0.5 pp from 10.5% in July). 10 Weak real sales with rising price expectations may keep pressure on household budgets into early 2027.
Counterpoints and uncertainties
The survey covers selected retailers in major cities and the September figures are estimates that can be revised when actual data come in. Seasonal factors explain part of the month-on-month swings, and stronger government transfers or year-end spending could lift sales above the retailers' expectations.
Key figures
- Real sales index growth (BI retail sales survey): 1.3% (up from 1.1% in July). Year-on-year change in Bank Indonesia's Real Sales Index (Retail Sales Survey). Indonesia, retail survey. Basis date: 31 Aug 2026. Source: Bank Indonesia: Retail Sales Survey September 2026 (2026-10-09)
- Real sales index growth (BI retail sales survey): −3.0%. Year-on-year change in Bank Indonesia's Real Sales Index (Retail Sales Survey). Indonesia, retail survey. Basis date: 30 Jun 2026. Source: Bank Indonesia: Retail Sales Survey August 2026 (2026-09-10)
- Real sales index, month on month (BI): 0.8% (after a 0.1% decline in July). Month-on-month change in Bank Indonesia's Real Sales Index. Indonesia, retail survey. Basis date: 31 Aug 2026. Source: Bank Indonesia: Retail Sales Survey September 2026 (2026-10-09)
- Expected real sales index growth, September (BI): 1.4% (from 1.3% in August). Year-on-year change in the Real Sales Index expected for September 2026 from retailers' responses (BI estimate). Indonesia, retail survey. Basis date: 30 Sep 2026. Source: Bank Indonesia: Retail Sales Survey September 2026 (2026-10-09)
- Expected real sales index, month on month, September (BI): −2.3%. Month-on-month change in the Real Sales Index expected for September 2026 (BI estimate). Indonesia, retail survey. Basis date: 30 Sep 2026. Source: Bank Indonesia: Retail Sales Survey September 2026 (2026-10-09)
- Retailers' price expectations index, November 2026 (BI): 149.9 (up from 146.5 for October 2026 in the previous survey). Bank Indonesia Retail Sales Survey price expectations index three months ahead (above 100 = more retailers expect price rises). Indonesia, retail survey. Basis date: 30 Sep 2026. Source: Bank Indonesia: Retail Sales Survey September 2026 (2026-10-09)
- Retailers' price expectations index, February 2027 (BI): 177.9 (up from 166.0 for January 2027 in the previous survey). Bank Indonesia Retail Sales Survey price expectations index six months ahead (above 100 = more retailers expect price rises). Indonesia, retail survey. Basis date: 30 Sep 2026. Source: Bank Indonesia: Retail Sales Survey September 2026 (2026-10-09)
- Headline CPI inflation (BPS): 3.28% (up from 3.19% in August). Year-on-year change in the consumer price index. Indonesia, national. Basis date: 30 Sep 2026. Source: ANTARA: Inflasi tahunan RI capai 3,28 persen pada September 2026 (2026-10-01, BPS data)
- Consumer confidence index (BI): 118.1 (down from 118.5 in August 2026). Bank Indonesia Consumer Survey confidence index; above 100 = optimistic. Indonesia, urban households in surveyed cities. Basis date: 30 Sep 2026. Source: Bisnis.com: Survei BI — Keyakinan Konsumen Turun pada September 2026 (2026-10-08)
- Share of income used for loan instalments: 10.0% (down 0.5 pp from 10.5% in July). Average share of household income allocated to debt instalments. Bank Indonesia Consumer Survey. Basis date: 31 Aug 2026. Source: Bank Indonesia: Survei Konsumen Agustus 2026 (PDF)
Sources
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