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Indonesian retail sales growth slows to 0.6% in September as retailers' price expectations climb

Published Data as of IndonesiaMacro & households
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Key points

Implications for lenders

With real retail sales up only 0.6% in September and price expectations rising to 165.0, household budgets may tighten into early 2027. Lenders financing consumer goods can stress-test repayment against higher living costs and watch early arrears on gadget and durable-goods loans.

Implications

ExecutivesRetail sales growth near 0.6% leaves little room for volume-led growth in point-of-sale and consumer-goods financing; pricing and risk selection may matter more than volume.
InvestorsRising price expectations alongside slow real sales are a combination to watch for household repayment capacity, especially for BNPL and multipurpose loan books.
OperatorsWeaker demand for ICT equipment may reduce gadget-financing volumes; fuel and food-led spending points to a need for small, short-tenor products.

Facts

Bank Indonesia (BI) released its Retail Sales Survey on 10 November. The Real Sales Index rose 0.6% year on year in September, down from 1.3% in August 2026; BI's estimate a month earlier was 1.4%. 1 Month on month, sales changed by −3.1%, after a 0.8% rise in August. 2

For October, BI expects real sales growth of 1.0% year on year, from 0.6% in September, 3 and a month-on-month change of 1.0%. 4 Vehicle fuel sales are expected to grow 1.7% year on year 5, with food, beverages and tobacco and spare parts also supporting growth; information and communication equipment sales are expected to change by −2.5%. 6

Retailers' price expectations index for three months ahead (December 2026) rose to 165.0, up from 149.9 for November 2026 in the previous survey, 7 and the six-month index (March 2027) to 180.2, up from 177.9 for February 2027 in the previous survey. 8 BI expects inflationary pressure to increase over both horizons.

Analysis

Time series: real sales growth moved from −3.0% in June to 1.1% in July, 1.3% in August and 0.6% in September. September came in below BI's estimate of 1.4% made a month earlier, so the recovery from mid-year contraction has stalled rather than built.

Household indicators diverge: consumer confidence rose to 119.9 in October, while headline inflation was 3.23%. Household consumption grew 5.04% in Q3 in the national accounts, faster than the retail survey implies, which suggests spending is shifting toward services and non-retail items or that a survey of retailers in selected cities captures only part of it.

Real retail sales growth (BI Real Sales Index, y/y) (%)
-4-202-32026-061.12026-071.32026-080.62026-09
Real retail sales growth (BI Real Sales Index, y/y) (%)
2026-06-3
2026-071.1
2026-081.3
2026-090.6

Year-on-year change in Bank Indonesia's Real Sales Index, realised values from the Retail Sales Survey · Source: Bank Indonesia, Survei Penjualan Eceran (2026-06, 2026-07, 2026-08, 2026-09) Each month shows the realised value as first published in the following survey; BI's one-month-ahead estimates are not plotted.

Counterpoints and uncertainties

The Real Sales Index is a survey of retailers in selected cities and BI's October figure is an estimate that can be revised, as September's was. Confidence rose in October and BI expects October sales to pick up, so the September slowdown may be partly a post-August holiday effect.

Key figures

  1. Real Sales Index y/y (BI): 0.6% (down from 1.3% in August 2026; BI's estimate a month earlier was 1.4%). Year-on-year change in Bank Indonesia's Real Sales Index (Retail Sales Survey). Indonesia, BI Retail Sales Survey. Basis date: 30 Sep 2026. Source: ANTARA: Survei BI catat penjualan eceran September 2026 alami perlambatan (2026-11-10)
  2. Real Sales Index m/m (BI): −3.1% (after a 0.8% rise in August). Month-on-month change in Bank Indonesia's Real Sales Index. Indonesia, BI Retail Sales Survey. Basis date: 30 Sep 2026. Source: ANTARA: Survei BI catat penjualan eceran September 2026 alami perlambatan (2026-11-10)
  3. Real Sales Index y/y, October estimate (BI): 1.0% (from 0.6% in September). Year-on-year change in the Real Sales Index expected for October 2026 from retailers' responses (BI estimate). Indonesia, BI Retail Sales Survey. Basis date: 31 Oct 2026. Source: ANTARA: Survei BI catat penjualan eceran September 2026 alami perlambatan (2026-11-10)
  4. Real Sales Index m/m, October estimate (BI): 1.0% (after a 3.1% fall in September). Month-on-month change in the Real Sales Index expected for October 2026 (BI estimate). Indonesia, BI Retail Sales Survey. Basis date: 31 Oct 2026. Source: ANTARA: Survei BI catat penjualan eceran September 2026 alami perlambatan (2026-11-10)
  5. Vehicle fuel sales y/y, October estimate (BI): 1.7%. Year-on-year change in the vehicle fuel group of the Real Sales Index, October 2026 estimate. Indonesia, BI Retail Sales Survey. Basis date: 31 Oct 2026. Source: Infobank: BI proyeksikan penjualan eceran Oktober 2026 tumbuh 1,0 persen (2026-11-10)
  6. ICT equipment sales y/y, October estimate (BI): −2.5%. Year-on-year change in the information and communication equipment group of the Real Sales Index, October 2026 estimate. Indonesia, BI Retail Sales Survey. Basis date: 31 Oct 2026. Source: Infobank: BI proyeksikan penjualan eceran Oktober 2026 tumbuh 1,0 persen (2026-11-10)
  7. Retailers' price expectations, 3 months ahead (BI): 165.0 (up from 149.9 for November 2026 in the previous survey). Bank Indonesia Retail Sales Survey price expectations index three months ahead (above 100 = more retailers expect price rises). Indonesia, BI Retail Sales Survey. Basis date: 31 Oct 2026. Source: Infobank: BI proyeksikan penjualan eceran Oktober 2026 tumbuh 1,0 persen (2026-11-10)
  8. Retailers' price expectations, 6 months ahead (BI): 180.2 (up from 177.9 for February 2027 in the previous survey). Bank Indonesia Retail Sales Survey price expectations index six months ahead (above 100 = more retailers expect price rises). Indonesia, BI Retail Sales Survey. Basis date: 31 Oct 2026. Source: Infobank: BI proyeksikan penjualan eceran Oktober 2026 tumbuh 1,0 persen (2026-11-10)

Sources

  1. Bank Indonesia: Survei Penjualan Eceran (news releases)primary
  2. ANTARA: Survei BI catat penjualan eceran September 2026 alami perlambatan (2026-11-10)
  3. Infobank: BI proyeksikan penjualan eceran Oktober 2026 tumbuh 1,0 persen (2026-11-10)
  4. Katadata: Survei BI — belanja masyarakat bangkit di Oktober (2026-11-10)
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Reports are for information only and are not investment advice.

A Japanese version of this article is available: 日本語版

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