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Cambodia's 2027 draft budget assumes 4.8% growth, above IMF and World Bank forecasts

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Key points

Implications for lenders

The budget assumes growth of 4.8% in 2027, while the IMF projects 4.0%; lenders may set 2027 credit plans and stress scenarios against the lower path rather than the official one. Spending is up 3.2% from the 2026 Finance Law, which may support incomes tied to public works and salaries, so repayment capacity in those segments can be reviewed once the final law shows where the money goes.

Implications

ExecutivesPlan 2027 volumes against a range: the government's 4.8% and the IMF's 4.0% lead to different loan-demand and repayment assumptions.
InvestorsA revenue plan that relies on faster growth than outside forecasters expect is a fiscal risk to track through the National Assembly debate and mid-year execution data.
OperatorsWatch which sectors the final budget law funds; public spending on wages, transfers and works feeds household and SME cash flows.

Facts

The decision: Cambodia's Council of Ministers approved the draft 2027 budget law at its weekly meeting on 23 October 2026, chaired by Prime Minister Hun Manet. The draft goes next to the National Assembly, then the Senate, and then to the King for royal endorsement.

Spending and revenue: total state budget expenditure is KHR 39.7 trillion 1, up 3.2% from the 2026 Finance Law, or 16.57% of GDP 2. Xinhua converts the total to about USD 9.72 bn 3. Total revenue is KHR 32.3 trillion 4, up 6.7% from the 2026 Finance Law, or 13.49% of GDP 5. The government's release gives no deficit or financing figure; spending minus revenue comes to about 3.1% of GDP 6 (T&S calculation).

Growth assumptions: the budget expects real GDP growth of about 4.0% 7 in 2026 and targets 4.8% 8 in 2027, with GDP per capita of USD 3,277 9, up from about USD 3,098 expected for 2026. Garment, footwear and travel-goods exports, tourism, agriculture, trade, logistics and IT are named as growth drivers.

Analysis

The government's growth path sits at the top of recent outside forecasts. For 2026, the IMF projects 3.0% 10, the World Bank 3.5% 11, ADB 3.9% 12 and AMRO 3.9% 13, against the budget's about 4.0%. For 2027, the IMF projects 4.0% 14 and the World Bank 4.0% 15, while AMRO is slightly above the government at 4.9% 16.

Revenue is planned to grow faster than spending (up 6.7% from the 2026 Finance Law against up 3.2% from the 2026 Finance Law). If growth comes in nearer the IMF and World Bank paths, revenue is the line most exposed, which would widen the gap of about 3.1% of GDP unless spending is cut.

Counterpoints and uncertainties

The figures are from the cabinet-approved draft; the National Assembly can amend them, and the release gives no deficit, financing or sector allocations. Revenue growth of up 6.7% from the 2026 Finance Law depends on a recovery in tourism and services that outside forecasters expect to be slower. A media report earlier in October described a fall in 2027 spending; the government's own figures show an increase.

Key figures

  1. State budget expenditure, 2027 draft: KHR 39.7 trillion (up 3.2% from the 2026 Finance Law). Total state budget expenditure in the 2027 draft budget approved by the Council of Ministers. Central government and sub-national budget. Basis date: 23 Oct 2026. Source: AKP: Cambodia's 2027 National Budget Targets 4.8% Economic Growth (2026-10-23)
  2. State budget expenditure, 2027 draft (% of GDP): 16.57% of GDP. 2027 draft budget expenditure as a share of projected GDP. Central government and sub-national budget. Basis date: 23 Oct 2026. Source: AKP: Cambodia's 2027 National Budget Targets 4.8% Economic Growth (2026-10-23)
  3. State budget expenditure, 2027 draft (USD): about USD 9.72 bn. 2027 draft budget expenditure converted at KHR 4,084 per USD, as reported by Xinhua. Central government and sub-national budget. Basis date: 23 Oct 2026. Source: Xinhua: Cambodian gov't passes 9.72-bln-USD draft budget for 2027 public spending (2026-10-23)
  4. State budget revenue, 2027 draft: KHR 32.3 trillion (up 6.7% from the 2026 Finance Law). Total state budget revenue in the 2027 draft budget (KHR 32,327 bn). Central government and sub-national budget. Basis date: 23 Oct 2026. Source: AKP: Cambodia's 2027 National Budget Targets 4.8% Economic Growth (2026-10-23)
  5. State budget revenue, 2027 draft (% of GDP): 13.49% of GDP. 2027 draft budget revenue as a share of projected GDP. Central government and sub-national budget. Basis date: 23 Oct 2026. Source: AKP: Cambodia's 2027 National Budget Targets 4.8% Economic Growth (2026-10-23)
  6. Budget expenditure minus revenue, 2027 draft (% of GDP, T&S calculation): about 3.1% of GDP
    The release states no deficit or financing figure; the gap is derived from 16.57% minus 13.49% of GDP.
    . T&S calculation: expenditure share of GDP minus revenue share of GDP in the 2027 draft budget; not an official deficit figure. Central government and sub-national budget. Basis date: 23 Oct 2026. Source: AKP: Cambodia's 2027 National Budget Targets 4.8% Economic Growth (2026-10-23)
  7. Government real GDP growth estimate, 2026: about 4.0%. Real GDP growth for 2026 expected in the 2027 draft budget documents. Economy-wide. Basis date: 23 Oct 2026. Source: AKP: Cambodia's 2027 National Budget Targets 4.8% Economic Growth (2026-10-23)
  8. Government real GDP growth target, 2027: 4.8% (up from about 4.0% expected for 2026). Real GDP growth targeted in the 2027 draft budget. Economy-wide. Basis date: 23 Oct 2026. Source: AKP: Cambodia's 2027 National Budget Targets 4.8% Economic Growth (2026-10-23)
  9. GDP per capita projection, 2027 (government): USD 3,277 (up from about USD 3,098 expected for 2026). GDP per capita projected in the 2027 draft budget. Economy-wide. Basis date: 23 Oct 2026. Source: AKP: Cambodia's 2027 National Budget Targets 4.8% Economic Growth (2026-10-23)
  10. IMF real GDP growth projection, 2026 (WEO October 2026): 3.0% (against 5.3% in 2025). IMF projection of annual real GDP change for 2026, WEO October 2026, Table A4. Cambodia, whole economy. Basis date: 13 Oct 2026. Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2026: Online Statistical Appendix Tables A4 (real GDP) and A7 (consumer prices)
  11. World Bank real GDP growth forecast, 2026: 3.5%. World Bank East Asia and Pacific Economic Update, October 2026 forecast. Whole economy. Basis date: 6 Oct 2026. Source: Bernama: World Bank Cuts Cambodia's 2026 Growth Forecast To 3.5 Pct Amid Tourism Slump, High Fuel Costs (2026-10-06)
  12. ADB real GDP growth forecast, 2026: 3.9% (revised down from 4.1% (July 2026)). ADB Asian Development Outlook September 2026 forecast. Whole economy. Basis date: 23 Sep 2026. Source: ADB: Developing Southeast Asia, Asian Development Outlook September 2026 (2026-09-23)
  13. AMRO real GDP growth forecast, 2026: 3.9% (revised down from 4.2% (July 2026)). AMRO ASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook, October 2026 quarterly update forecast. Whole economy. Basis date: 5 Oct 2026. Source: AKP: Cambodia's Strong Manufacturing Exports Offset Weak Services Sector: AMRO Chief Economist (2026-10-05)
  14. IMF real GDP growth projection, 2027 (WEO October 2026): 4.0% (against 3.0% projected for 2026). IMF projection of annual real GDP change for 2027, WEO October 2026, Table A4. Cambodia, whole economy. Basis date: 13 Oct 2026. Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2026: Online Statistical Appendix Tables A4 (real GDP) and A7 (consumer prices)
  15. World Bank real GDP growth forecast, 2027: 4.0%. World Bank East Asia and Pacific Economic Update, October 2026 forecast. Whole economy. Basis date: 6 Oct 2026. Source: Bernama: World Bank Cuts Cambodia's 2026 Growth Forecast To 3.5 Pct Amid Tourism Slump, High Fuel Costs (2026-10-06)
  16. AMRO real GDP growth forecast, 2027: 4.9% (unchanged from July 2026). AMRO ASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook, October 2026 quarterly update forecast. Whole economy. Basis date: 5 Oct 2026. Source: AKP: Cambodia's Strong Manufacturing Exports Offset Weak Services Sector: AMRO Chief Economist (2026-10-05)

Sources

  1. AKP: Cambodia's 2027 National Budget Targets 4.8% Economic Growth (2026-10-23)
  2. Xinhua: Cambodian gov't passes 9.72-bln-USD draft budget for 2027 public spending (2026-10-23)
  3. IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2026primary
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A Japanese version of this article is available: 日本語版

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