CDRI model: border closure lifts Cambodia's GDP but lowers consumption per person
A one-minute summary read by an AI voice.
Key points
- A CDRI study finds that, in its moderate scenario, the return of about 900,000 workers from Thailand leaves real GDP +1.50% above baseline by 2030
- Real consumption per person ends −5.35% and GDP per person −1.01% against baseline, as lower remittances, tourism, trade and investment outweigh the larger workforce
- The moderate scenario assumes a −60% change in remittances from Thailand; consumption per person is −3.57% against baseline in the light and −7.23% in the severe case
Implications for lenders
CDRI's moderate scenario has consumption per person at −5.35% against baseline by 2030 while GDP is higher, so underwriting based on household income and remittances may need more weight than aggregate growth. Portfolios with many returnee or remittance-receiving borrowers may need closer monitoring and restructuring capacity, given the NPL ratio of 9.6% in June 2026. Repayment schedules tied to remittance cycles may also need review.
Implications
Facts
The study: the Cambodia Development Resource Institute (CDRI) published a research report on 7 September 2026 that uses a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to estimate the effects of the closure of the Cambodia–Thailand border. According to CamboJA News, the study was funded by the Asian Development Bank. It cites about 900,000 1 migrant workers who returned from Thailand.
Assumptions: the moderate scenario assumes a −60% 2 change in remittances from Thailand, which means a −48% 3 change in total remittance inflows, alongside lower trade with Thailand, fewer tourist arrivals and a higher return required by investors. Light and severe scenarios vary the size of each shock.
Results for 2030, against a baseline without the closure, moderate scenario: real GDP +1.50% 4, employment +3.94% 5, real GDP per person −1.01% 6 and real consumption per person −5.35% 7. Consumption per person is −3.57% 8 against baseline in the light scenario and −7.23% 9 in the severe scenario. The report attributes the gap between output and welfare to reduced remittances, lower tourism, weaker trade and lower investment, which offset much of the gain from a larger workforce.
Analysis
Against recorded data, the moderate assumption implies a steeper fall than official estimates showed for 2025: the Ministry of Labour and Vocational Training put remittances at USD 1.86bn 10 in 2025, −37% from USD 2.95bn in 2024. The model's consumption result lines up with what lenders already report: the banking-system NPL ratio rose to 9.6% 11 in June 2026, up from 8.4% at end-June 2025, while restructured loans were 7.5% 12 of the portfolio.
The headline growth forecasts look less severe because they track output, not income per person: the World Bank expects growth of 3.5% 13 in 2026. For household lenders, the CDRI result suggests that repayment capacity can weaken even where aggregate output holds up, because more workers share a smaller income pool at home.
| 2024-12 | 7.4 |
|---|---|
| 2025-06 | 8.4 |
| 2025-12 | 8.9 |
| 2026-06 | 9.6 |
NPL ratio of banks and financial institutions as published by NBC. End-2024 and end-2025 from annual reports; June 2025 and June 2026 from semi-annual reports (June 2025 is the prior-year comparison in the H1 2026 report). Values taken from media reports of the NBC publications. Each point confirmed on 2026-09-28 against the cited reports (TheBetterCambodia/gbmfi for end-2024 and end-2025; Xinhua for June 2025 and June 2026). · Source: NBC Annual Report 2025 (end-2024 and 2025 values); NBC semi-annual report H1 2026 as reported by Xinhua (June 2025 and June 2026 values)
Counterpoints and uncertainties
These are model scenarios, not forecasts: results depend on assumptions about remittances, trade, tourism and investor returns, and a reopening of the border would change them. The report gives no figures on household debt or microfinance, so the link to loan performance is an inference. Some returnees have found work at home, which could cushion income losses more than the model assumes.
Key figures
- Migrant workers returned from Thailand (CDRI): about 900,000. Cambodian migrant workers who returned from Thailand after the border closure, as cited by CDRI. Cambodia. Basis date: 7 Sep 2026. Source: CDRI Research Report: Impact of the Border Closure on the Cambodian Economy: A Dynamic CGE Analysis (2026-09-07), Tables 1 and 8
- Assumed fall in remittances from Thailand, moderate scenario (CDRI): −60%. Scenario assumption: change in remittances from Thailand in CDRI's moderate border-closure scenario. Remittances from Thailand. Basis date: 7 Sep 2026. Source: CDRI Research Report: Impact of the Border Closure on the Cambodian Economy: A Dynamic CGE Analysis (2026-09-07), Tables 1 and 8
- Implied fall in total remittances, moderate scenario (CDRI): −48%. Scenario assumption: resulting change in total remittance inflows in CDRI's moderate border-closure scenario. Total remittance inflows. Basis date: 7 Sep 2026. Source: CDRI Research Report: Impact of the Border Closure on the Cambodian Economy: A Dynamic CGE Analysis (2026-09-07), Tables 1 and 8
- Real GDP vs baseline by 2030, moderate scenario (CDRI): +1.50%. CDRI dynamic CGE model: deviation of real GDP from baseline in 2030, moderate scenario, joint effects. Cambodia. Basis date: 7 Sep 2026. Source: CDRI Research Report: Impact of the Border Closure on the Cambodian Economy: A Dynamic CGE Analysis (2026-09-07), Tables 1 and 8
- Employment vs baseline by 2030, moderate scenario (CDRI): +3.94%. CDRI dynamic CGE model: deviation of employment from baseline in 2030, moderate scenario. Cambodia. Basis date: 7 Sep 2026. Source: CDRI Research Report: Impact of the Border Closure on the Cambodian Economy: A Dynamic CGE Analysis (2026-09-07), Tables 1 and 8
- Real GDP per capita vs baseline by 2030, moderate scenario (CDRI): −1.01%. CDRI dynamic CGE model: deviation of real GDP per capita from baseline in 2030, moderate scenario. Cambodia. Basis date: 7 Sep 2026. Source: CDRI Research Report: Impact of the Border Closure on the Cambodian Economy: A Dynamic CGE Analysis (2026-09-07), Tables 1 and 8
- Real consumption per capita vs baseline by 2030, moderate scenario (CDRI): −5.35%. CDRI dynamic CGE model: deviation of real consumption per capita from baseline in 2030, moderate scenario. Cambodia. Basis date: 7 Sep 2026. Source: CDRI Research Report: Impact of the Border Closure on the Cambodian Economy: A Dynamic CGE Analysis (2026-09-07), Tables 1 and 8
- Real consumption per capita vs baseline by 2030, light scenario (CDRI): −3.57%. CDRI dynamic CGE model: deviation of real consumption per capita from baseline in 2030, light scenario. Cambodia. Basis date: 7 Sep 2026. Source: CDRI Research Report: Impact of the Border Closure on the Cambodian Economy: A Dynamic CGE Analysis (2026-09-07), Tables 1 and 8
- Real consumption per capita vs baseline by 2030, severe scenario (CDRI): −7.23%. CDRI dynamic CGE model: deviation of real consumption per capita from baseline in 2030, severe scenario. Cambodia. Basis date: 7 Sep 2026. Source: CDRI Research Report: Impact of the Border Closure on the Cambodian Economy: A Dynamic CGE Analysis (2026-09-07), Tables 1 and 8
- Remittances from workers abroad (MoLVT estimate): USD 1.86bn (−37% from USD 2.95bn in 2024). Ministry of Labour and Vocational Training estimate. Cambodian workers abroad. Basis date: 31 Dec 2025. Source: Cambodianess: Remittance crunch (MoLVT estimate), 2026-03-31
Detailed definition unverified.
- NBC NPL ratio (semi-annual, latest): 9.6% (up from 8.4% at end-June 2025). Non-performing loans as a share of total loans, banking system. Banks and financial institutions supervised by NBC. Basis date: 30 Jun 2026. Source: NBC semi-annual report H1 2026 (via Xinhua, 2026-07-28)
NBC primary document not located on nbc.gov.kh; figure as reported by Xinhua from the NBC semi-annual report released 28 July 2026.
- NBC restructured loans ratio (semi-annual): 7.5% (down from 8.3% at end-2025). Value of restructured loan accounts as a share of the total loan portfolio, per the NBC Governor. Banks and financial institutions supervised by NBC. Basis date: 30 Jun 2026. Source: AKP: Cambodia’s Banking System Remains Healthy Despite External Risks (NBC H1 2026 review, 2026-07-28)
Stated by the NBC Governor at the 27 July 2026 first-half review; the NBC said these measures are being phased out gradually. Both this value and the end-2025 8.3% are restructured loans as a share of total loans; the end-2025 figure comes from the NBC Annual Report 2025 (estimates based on data to November 2025, 252,868 customers), while the H1 2026 count is in loan accounts.
- World Bank real GDP growth forecast, 2026: 3.5%. World Bank East Asia and Pacific Economic Update, October 2026 forecast. Whole economy. Basis date: 6 Oct 2026. Source: Bernama: World Bank Cuts Cambodia's 2026 Growth Forecast To 3.5 Pct Amid Tourism Slump, High Fuel Costs (2026-10-06)
Sources
- CDRI Research Report: Impact of the Border Closure on the Cambodian Economy: A Dynamic CGE Analysis (2026-09-07), Tables 1 and 8primary
- CDRI publication page: Impact of the Border Closure on the Cambodian Economy (2026-09-07)primary
- CamboJA News: Migrant returns could grow economy but leave households poorer, report says (2026-10-07)
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