BNM holds OPR at 2.75%; 2026 growth projected at about 5%

Published 28 Sep 2026Data as of 3 Sep 2026MalaysiaMacro & households

BNM kept the Overnight Policy Rate at 2.75% at its 3 September MPC meeting.
Real GDP grew 5.7% in the first half of 2026; full-year growth is projected at about 5%.
Headline inflation averaged 1.8% and core 2.0% in January–July.

Facts

Policy rate: the Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) was held at 2.75%. Basis: 3 September 2026. Source: Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) Monetary Policy Statement. ¹

Growth: real GDP grew 5.7% in the first half of 2026, and full-year growth is projected at about 5%, driven by exports and domestic demand. Same source. ²

Prices: headline inflation averaged 1.8% and core inflation 2.0% in January–July 2026. BNM judged that domestic policy measures and stable demand have limited pass-through to consumer prices. Same source.

Risks: BNM cited downside risks from a prolonged Middle East conflict, lower commodity production, geopolitical tensions and tighter global financial conditions. Same source.

Analysis

Regionally, Malaysia's OPR of 2.75% is well below Indonesia (5.75%) and the Philippines (5.0%), and its inflation (1.8% January–July average) is below both countries' August readings (3.19% and 6.1%). The combination of low rates, low inflation and solid growth suggests a relatively stable repayment environment for households among the major ASEAN economies.

Implications

ExecutivesRates look stable for now; arrears are more likely to be driven by employment, prices and subsidy reform than by interest rates.

InvestorsSolid growth with low inflation marks Malaysia as a relatively stable credit market within the region.

OperatorsIn underwriting and monitoring, reflect the share of gig workers and the impact of subsidy rationalisation rather than rate moves.

Counterpoints and uncertainties

BNM itself names the Middle East and global financial conditions as downside risks. If an external shock hits growth, arrears could rise first among vulnerable groups such as young people (youth unemployment 10.2%, DOSM).

Figures: see definitions

Overnight Policy Rate (BNM): 2.75% (unchanged). Bank Negara Malaysia policy rate. Malaysia, national. Basis date: 3 Sep 2026. Source: Bank Negara Malaysia: Monetary Policy Statement (3 September 2026)
Real GDP growth, first half 2026: 5.7%. Year-on-year real GDP growth, January–June 2026. Malaysia, national. Basis date: 30 Jun 2026. Source: Bank Negara Malaysia: Monetary Policy Statement (3 September 2026)

Sources

Bank Negara Malaysia: Monetary Policy Statement (3 September 2026)primary

Reports are for information only and are not investment advice. Methodology: sources, verification and definitions