T&S Asset Management
Listen日本語

BSP projects balance-of-payments deficits through 2027 and slow remittance growth

Published Data as of PhilippinesMacro & households
Listen0:00

A one-minute summary read by an AI voice.

Key points

Implications for lenders

Lenders to remittance-dependent households may see repayment capacity squeezed if remittances grow only 2.7% in dollars while inflation stays near 7.2%, unless the peso weakens. Underwriting that counts remittances as income can apply more conservative haircuts, and lenders funding in foreign currency may need to watch the external deficit's effect on the peso.

Implications

ExecutivesLenders with large overseas-worker and remittance-receiving customer bases should stress-test repayment capacity for slower real remittance income in 2026–2027.
InvestorsA persistent external deficit and high inflation may keep pressure on the peso and on policy rates, which matters for lenders' funding costs.
OperatorsTrack monthly remittance data against inflation to adjust limits for borrowers whose income depends on transfers from abroad.

Facts

Balance of payments: on 13 October the BSP released updated external-sector projections. It expects the overall balance of payments to stay in deficit, at USD 9.2bn deficit in 2026 (narrower than the USD 10.7bn deficit in the previous projection) 1 and USD 8.5bn deficit in 2027 (narrower than the USD 11.0bn deficit in the previous projection). 2 The 2026 deficit equals 1.8% of GDP. 3 In 2025 the balance of payments posted a USD 5.7bn deficit, reversing a USD 609m surplus in 2024. 4

Current account: the BSP projects a current-account deficit of USD 19.1bn deficit in 2026 (wider than the USD 18.0bn deficit in the previous projection), equal to 3.8% of GDP, 5 and USD 19.4bn deficit in 2027 (narrower than the USD 19.7bn deficit in the previous projection). 6 It said elevated fuel and commodity prices "remain the principal driver". Goods imports are projected at USD 139.7bn in 2026, up from USD 135.3bn in the previous projection. 7 Net foreign direct investment is projected at USD 6.5bn, down from USD 7.0bn in the previous projection. 8

Remittances and reserves: cash remittances from overseas Filipinos are projected to rise 2.7% to USD 36.6bn in 2026 9 and 3% to USD 37.7bn in 2027; 10 both remittance projections were unchanged from the previous projection. Gross international reserves are projected at USD 104bn at end-2026 and USD 105bn at end-2027, 11 compared with USD 104.8bn at end-August. 12

Analysis

Time series: the projected 2026 deficit of USD 9.2bn deficit would be larger than the USD 5.7bn deficit of 2025, making a second consecutive annual deficit after the 2024 surplus. The downward revision of the overall deficit came with a wider 2026 current-account deficit, so the narrower gap reflects larger projected net financial-account flows rather than a better trade position.

Households: remittance growth of 2.7% in dollars compares with headline inflation of 7.2% in September. 13 How much the peso value of remittances rises depends on the exchange rate, which the projections do not give; a weaker peso would raise the peso value received, but at constant exchange rates the purchasing power of remittances would fall. Reserves are projected to stay close to the end-August level, which the BSP described as a buffer against external shocks.

Counterpoints and uncertainties

These are projections; the BSP itself revised the 2026 and 2027 balance-of-payments deficits by large amounts within one quarter, and changes in oil prices or capital flows can move them again. Remittances are measured in dollars, so peso depreciation can offset part of the effect of inflation on recipients. The figures were reported by media from the BSP release; the full BSP table may contain further detail.

Key figures

  1. BSP projected balance of payments, 2026: USD 9.2bn deficit (narrower than the USD 10.7bn deficit in the previous projection). Overall balance of payments projected by BSP for calendar 2026 (October 2026 projections). Philippines, BSP projection. Basis date: 13 Oct 2026. Source: The Manila Times: BOP to stay in deficit through 2027, says BSP (2026-10-14)
  2. BSP projected balance of payments, 2027: USD 8.5bn deficit (narrower than the USD 11.0bn deficit in the previous projection). Overall balance of payments projected by BSP for calendar 2027 (October 2026 projections). Philippines, BSP projection. Basis date: 13 Oct 2026. Source: The Manila Times: BOP to stay in deficit through 2027, says BSP (2026-10-14)
  3. BSP projected BoP deficit, % of GDP, 2026: 1.8% of GDP. Projected 2026 overall balance-of-payments deficit as a share of GDP (BSP). Philippines, BSP projection. Basis date: 13 Oct 2026. Source: Daily Tribune: BSP sees BoP deficits in 2026 and 2027 (2026-10-14)
  4. Balance of payments, 2025: USD 5.7bn deficit (reversing a USD 609m surplus in 2024). Overall balance of payments, calendar year (BSP). Philippines. Basis date: 31 Dec 2025. Source: The Manila Times: BOP to stay in deficit through 2027, says BSP (2026-10-14)
  5. BSP projected current-account deficit, % of GDP, 2026: 3.8% of GDP. Projected 2026 current-account deficit as a share of GDP (BSP). Philippines, BSP projection. Basis date: 13 Oct 2026. Source: Daily Tribune: BSP sees BoP deficits in 2026 and 2027 (2026-10-14)
  6. BSP projected current account, 2027: USD 19.4bn deficit (narrower than the USD 19.7bn deficit in the previous projection). Current account balance projected by BSP for calendar 2027 (October 2026 projections). Philippines, BSP projection. Basis date: 13 Oct 2026. Source: The Manila Times: BOP to stay in deficit through 2027, says BSP (2026-10-14)
  7. BSP projected goods imports, 2026: USD 139.7bn (up from USD 135.3bn in the previous projection). Goods imports projected by BSP for calendar 2026 (BoP basis). Philippines, BSP projection. Basis date: 13 Oct 2026. Source: The Manila Times: BOP to stay in deficit through 2027, says BSP (2026-10-14)
  8. BSP projected net FDI, 2026: USD 6.5bn (down from USD 7.0bn in the previous projection). Net foreign direct investment inflows projected by BSP for calendar 2026. Philippines, BSP projection. Basis date: 13 Oct 2026. Source: The Manila Times: BOP to stay in deficit through 2027, says BSP (2026-10-14)
  9. BSP projected cash remittances, 2026: USD 36.6bn (unchanged from the previous projection). Cash remittances from overseas Filipinos projected by BSP for calendar 2026. Philippines, BSP projection. Basis date: 13 Oct 2026. Source: The Manila Times: BOP to stay in deficit through 2027, says BSP (2026-10-14)
  10. BSP projected cash remittance growth, 2027: 3%. Projected year-on-year growth of cash remittances in US dollars, 2027 (BSP). Philippines, BSP projection. Basis date: 13 Oct 2026. Source: Daily Tribune: BSP sees BoP deficits in 2026 and 2027 (2026-10-14)
  11. BSP projected gross international reserves, end-2027: USD 105bn. Gross international reserves projected by BSP for end-2027. Philippines, BSP projection. Basis date: 13 Oct 2026. Source: The Manila Times: BOP to stay in deficit through 2027, says BSP (2026-10-14)
  12. Gross international reserves: USD 104.8bn (USD 103.3bn at end-July)
    The BSP release could not be read directly.
    . Gross international reserves, end of month (preliminary). Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas. Basis date: 31 Aug 2026. Source: Philstar (2026-09-09), reporting BSP data
  13. Headline CPI inflation (PSA): 7.2% (up from 6.1% in August; matches April 2026). Year-on-year change in the consumer price index. Philippines, national. Basis date: 30 Sep 2026. Source: Inquirer: PH inflation climbs to 7.2% in September (2026-10-06)

Sources

  1. Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas: Balance of Payments (statistics and reports)primary
  2. The Manila Times: BOP to stay in deficit through 2027, says BSP (2026-10-14)
  3. Daily Tribune: BSP sees BoP deficits in 2026 and 2027 (2026-10-14)
Weekly email

SEA Lending Brief

A weekly summary of lending, credit and regulation across Southeast Asia.

We will email you a link to confirm. Unsubscribe at any time. Privacy policy

Reports are for information only and are not investment advice.

A Japanese version of this article is available: 日本語版

More on Philippines

24 Oct 2026 · CreditBPI's nine-month profit slips as provisions rise 69.2%; card and personal loans grow fast23 Oct 2026 · Macro & householdsBSP raises policy rate by 50 basis points to 5.50% and lifts its 2027 inflation forecast20 Oct 2026 · Macro & householdsPhilippine balance-of-payments deficit widens to USD 3.14bn deficit in September as reserves fall to USD 99.5bn

Philippines overview: key indicators and all articles →