Vietnam's listed banks see special-mention loans rise for a second straight quarter

Implications

Facts

Special mention: the Group 2 (special mention) loan ratio at the 27 listed banks was 1.38% ¹ of loans, the second consecutive quarterly rise, up from 1.17% at end-2025; second consecutive quarterly rise; the ratio rose at 15 of 27 banks. Basis date: end-Q2 2026. Source: Báo Công Thương (2026-09-21, republished by vietnam.vn).

Non-performing loans: the NPL ratio of the listed banks was 2.01% (Q2 2026). Excluding Sacombank, it was 1.78%. Sacombank's NPL ratio rose to 7.54%, with Group 5 loans rising to 5.07% (up from 1.77%), accounting for 77.7% of the sector's NPL increase (attributed to restructuring-related factors). 20 of 27 banks improved or kept their NPL ratios low. Source: as above.

Framework: under Circular 31/2024, debt classification now extends to finance leases, factoring, credit cards and corporate bonds, among others. Source: as above.

Analysis

Over time, the Group 2 ratio, regarded as a leading indicator of future NPLs, rose from end-2025 to 1.38% over two quarters. While the NPL ratio is distorted by one bank's (Sacombank's) specific factors, the Group 2 increase is broad-based (15 of 27 banks), suggesting wider change at the early stage of delinquency.

By comparison, Thai banks' Stage 2 ratio (loans with a significant increase in credit risk) was 6.78% (Q2 2026, BOT), but classification standards differ and levels are not directly comparable. In both countries, indicators before the NPL stage deserve attention.

Counterpoints and uncertainties

Coverage is limited to the 27 listed banks; unlisted banks and consumer finance companies are excluded. The Group 2 ratio of 1.38% is still low, and several more quarters of data are needed to tell whether the increase marks the start of real deterioration or a temporary fluctuation.