T&S Asset Management
Listen日本語

Vietnam's credit up 11.59% by end-September; preferential SME loans reach about 4.5% of programme size

Published Data as of VietnamCreditSME
Listen0:00

The article read by an AI voice.

Key points

Implications

ExecutivesPlan Q4 lending on limited quota headroom; priority-sector and excluded lending are the channels where room remains.
InvestorsExpect Q3 loan growth at banks with quota to be strong, and watch whether the SBV raises or reallocates limits before year-end.
OperatorsSME programme funding is available at a discount; the constraint is documenting borrower cash flow well enough to qualify.

Facts

System credit: SBV Deputy Governor Pham Thanh Ha told the government's regular press conference on 3 October that credit outstanding was about VND 20.75 quadrillion 1 at 30 September, up 11.59% 2 from end-2025 and 16.69% 3 from a year earlier. She said the pace is consistent with the SBV's full-year orientation. Sources: CafeF; Thị trường Tài chính Tiền tệ (both 2026-10-03).

Preferential programme: 19 banks 4 have registered for the credit programme for businesses and growth drivers, with a combined size of about VND 409 trn 5. The banks that have lent so far report about VND 18.6 trn 6 outstanding to about 12,900 7 borrowers, at rates 1–3.6 percentage points below standard rates 8.

Exclusions and plans: lending for social housing, industrial and export-processing zones, hotels, tourism and resorts, and incremental lending to large priority projects does not count toward the credit growth limit. In the fourth quarter the SBV plans to revise its credit rules, steer lending to priority sectors while tightly controlling higher-risk ones, and expand digital tools.

Analysis

Over time, year-to-date credit growth has accelerated from 8.38% 9 at 29 July to 10.24% 10 on 17 September and 11.59% at quarter-end, part of it the usual quarter-end lending push. Remaining room to the about 15% 11 guideline has narrowed to about 3.4 pt 12, from about 4.8 pt two weeks earlier. Credit is growing faster than the economy: Q3 real GDP growth was 9.95% 13, against credit growth of 16.69% year on year, so the credit-to-GDP ratio of 145% 14 is still rising.

The preferential programme tells a different story. Outstanding loans equal about about 4.5% 15 of its registered size. A rate discount helps less when market lending rates average 10.7% 16 and SME borrowers still need collateral and documented cash flow to qualify. This points to underwriting capacity, rather than funding, as the main constraint on SME credit.

The exclusions matter for the rest of the market: if growth in housing, industrial-zone and tourism lending sits outside the limit, the remaining quota for consumer and SME lending is larger than the headline headroom suggests, but its size is not published.

Credit growth by calendar year (%)
0510152014.18202213.71202315.08202419.012025
Credit growth by calendar year (%)
202214.18
202313.71
202415.08
202519.01

Credit of the credit-institution system, growth over the calendar year (end-December vs previous end-December), State Bank of Vietnam figures as reported in the press · Source: State Bank of Vietnam full-year figures, as reported by Vietnamese media (2022, 2023, 2024, 2025) Revised full-year figures are used for 2022 and 2023 (first reported at 14.5% and about 13.5%). The 2026 year-to-date figure is not part of this series.

Counterpoints and uncertainties

The SBV figures are aggregate and do not show how much of the growth comes from excluded or priority lending, so the headroom for consumer lending is uncertain. The quarter-end jump may partly reverse in October. A low draw on the SME programme may reflect slow rollout at the newer participants rather than weak demand.

Key figures

  1. Credit outstanding (30 September 2026): about VND 20.75 quadrillion. Total credit outstanding of the credit institution system, as stated by the SBV. Credit institution system. Basis date: 30 Sep 2026. Source: CafeF: Deputy Governor Pham Thanh Ha — credit at 30/9 reaches VND 20.75 quadrillion, up 11.59% (2026-10-03)
  2. System credit growth, year to date (30 September 2026): 11.59% (up from 10.24% on 17 September and 8.38% on 29 July). Growth of credit outstanding since end-2025, as stated by the SBV. Credit institution system. Basis date: 30 Sep 2026. Source: CafeF: Deputy Governor Pham Thanh Ha — credit at 30/9 reaches VND 20.75 quadrillion, up 11.59% (2026-10-03)
  3. System credit growth, year on year (30 September 2026): 16.69%. Growth of credit outstanding versus the same date a year earlier, as stated by the SBV. Credit institution system. Basis date: 30 Sep 2026. Source: Thị trường Tài chính Tiền tệ: Total credit outstanding in the first nine months of 2026 reaches VND 20.75 quadrillion, up 16.69% y/y (2026-10-03)
  4. Banks registered in the preferential business credit programme: 19 banks (up from 14 state-owned banks at launch). Commercial banks registered to lend under the programme, as stated by the SBV. Preferential credit programme for businesses (SMEs and growth drivers). Basis date: 30 Sep 2026. Source: Thị trường Tài chính Tiền tệ: Total credit outstanding in the first nine months of 2026 reaches VND 20.75 quadrillion, up 16.69% y/y (2026-10-03)
  5. Registered size of the preferential business credit programme: about VND 409 trn. Total lending capacity registered by participating commercial banks, as stated by the SBV. Preferential credit programme for businesses (SMEs and growth drivers). Basis date: 30 Sep 2026. Source: CafeF: Deputy Governor Pham Thanh Ha — credit at 30/9 reaches VND 20.75 quadrillion, up 11.59% (2026-10-03)
  6. Loans outstanding under the preferential business credit programme: about VND 18.6 trn. Outstanding loans disbursed under the programme by the ten banks that have lent, as stated by the SBV. Preferential credit programme for businesses (SMEs and growth drivers). Basis date: 30 Sep 2026. Source: CafeF: Deputy Governor Pham Thanh Ha — credit at 30/9 reaches VND 20.75 quadrillion, up 11.59% (2026-10-03)
  7. Borrowers under the preferential business credit programme: about 12,900. Borrower accounts with loans under the programme, as stated by the SBV. Preferential credit programme for businesses (SMEs and growth drivers). Basis date: 30 Sep 2026. Source: CafeF: Deputy Governor Pham Thanh Ha — credit at 30/9 reaches VND 20.75 quadrillion, up 11.59% (2026-10-03)
  8. Rate discount under the preferential business credit programme: 1–3.6 percentage points below standard rates. Gap between programme lending rates and the banks' standard lending rates, as stated by the SBV. Preferential credit programme for businesses (SMEs and growth drivers). Basis date: 30 Sep 2026. Source: CafeF: Deputy Governor Pham Thanh Ha — credit at 30/9 reaches VND 20.75 quadrillion, up 11.59% (2026-10-03)
  9. System credit growth, year to date: 8.38%. Growth of credit outstanding versus end-2025. Banking system. Basis date: 29 Jul 2026. Source: VietnamPlus: Vietnam to roll out 8.4 billion USD preferential loan scheme (2026-08-04)
  10. System credit growth, year to date: 10.24%
    Unverified; exact basis date not stated, report dated 17 September 2026.
    . Growth of credit outstanding since end-2025, from SBV market report as reported. Banking system. Basis date: 17 Sep 2026. Source: Báo Nghệ An: Lãi suất ngân hàng ngày 17/9/2026 (2026-09-17)
  11. SBV 2026 credit growth guideline: about 15%. Indicative full-year credit growth target set by the State Bank of Vietnam. Banking system. Basis date: 23 Sep 2026. Source: ADB: Developing Southeast Asia, Asian Development Outlook September 2026 (2026-09-23)
  12. Remaining room to the 2026 credit growth guideline (30 September): about 3.4 pt (down from about 4.8 pt on 17 September). T&S calculation: about 15% guideline minus 11.59% year-to-date growth. Credit institution system. Basis date: 30 Sep 2026. Source: T&S calculation from CafeF (2026-10-03) and ADB ADO September 2026
  13. Real GDP growth, Q3 2026: 9.95% (up from 8.81% in Q2 and 8.15% in Q1 2026). Year-on-year real GDP growth, NSO estimate. Whole economy. Basis date: 30 Sep 2026. Source: VietnamPlus (VNA): Vietnam posts GDP growth of 9.95% in Q3 (2026-10-03, citing NSO)
  14. Bank credit to GDP: 145%
    Per ADB.
    . Bank credit outstanding / GDP. Banking system. Basis date: 31 Dec 2025. Source: ADB: Developing Southeast Asia, Asian Development Outlook September 2026 (2026-09-23)
  15. Share of the preferential programme drawn: about 4.5%. T&S calculation: loans outstanding (about VND 18.6 trn) / registered size (about VND 409 trn). Preferential credit programme for businesses (SMEs and growth drivers). Basis date: 30 Sep 2026. Source: T&S calculation from CafeF (2026-10-03)
  16. Average lending rate (SBV data): 10.7% (nearly 2 percentage points above end-2025)
    The report does not specify loan tenor, currency or whether the average covers new or outstanding loans.
    . Average lending rate of credit institutions, State Bank of Vietnam data as reported by Viet Nam News. Banking system. Basis date: 31 Aug 2026. Source: Viet Nam News: Viet Nam rates likely to stay high until early 2027 (2026-09-30, citing SBV data)

Sources

  1. CafeF: Deputy Governor Pham Thanh Ha — credit at 30/9 reaches VND 20.75 quadrillion, up 11.59% (2026-10-03)
  2. Thị trường Tài chính Tiền tệ: Total credit outstanding in the first nine months of 2026 (2026-10-03)
  3. Dân trí: Credit outstanding reaches VND 20.75 quadrillion after nine months (2026-10-03)
Weekly email

SEA Lending Brief

A weekly summary of lending, credit and regulation across Southeast Asia.

We will email you a link to confirm. Unsubscribe at any time. Privacy policy

Reports are for information only and are not investment advice.

A Japanese version of this article is available: 日本語版

More on Vietnam

24 Oct 2026 · CreditFour Vietnamese banks book interest faster than they collect cash as bad loans rise20 Oct 2026 · RegulationVietnam's central bank orders deposit-rate cuts and ties compliance to 2027 credit quotas19 Oct 2026 · CreditVietnam's government asks banks to cut lending rates by 1.5–2 percentage points as deposit costs rise

Vietnam overview: key indicators and all articles →