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Indonesian banks report wider new lending and lower lending-standard index in Q3, BI survey shows

Published Data as of IndonesiaCredit
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Key points

Implications for lenders

With BI's lending standard index down to 0.28 and banks expecting 0.15, banks may compete harder on limits, tenors and pricing for borrowers they previously turned away, which can narrow the pool left to non-bank lenders. Lenders may review their pricing against banks' and track first-payment defaults more closely, since looser bank standards can change who applies to them.

Implications

ExecutivesBanks are signalling more room on limits, tenors and pricing, so non-bank lenders may face stiffer competition for borrowers that banks now accept.
InvestorsThe survey points to wider new lending into the fourth quarter, but slow consumer-credit growth means the gains may sit mainly in business lending.
OperatorsLooser bank standards can shift marginal borrowers' options, so lenders may watch application quality and early arrears for adverse selection.

Facts

Survey results: Bank Indonesia published its Q3 2026 banking survey on 22 October 2026. The weighted net balance (SBT) of banks reporting higher new lending was 90.08%, vs 82.33% in Q3 2025 and 84.65% expected in BI's Q2 survey. 1 In the Q2 survey, banks had expected 84.65% for the third quarter 2, and the Q3 2025 reading was 82.33%. 3

Standards: BI's Lending Standard Index (ILS) was 0.28, down from 1.03 in Q2 2026. 4 For the fourth quarter, respondents expect 0.15 5; BI says the easing covers credit limits, tenors, interest rates and administrative requirements.

Outlook: banks expect the new-loan balance at 91.31% in the fourth quarter, vs 88.92% in Q4 2025, 6 and expect outstanding credit to keep growing to the end of 2026. The press release gives no breakdown by loan type; BI publishes it in the full survey report.

Analysis

Time series: the new-loan balance is strongly seasonal, with low first-quarter readings every year (see chart), so the useful comparison is the same quarter a year earlier. On that basis, the Q3 2026 reading of 90.08% is above Q3 2025's 82.33%, and above the 84.65% banks themselves expected three months earlier.

Survey versus hard data: in the Q2 survey, banks expected 2026 credit growth of 7.51% 7, while BI's own data show bank credit growing 13.26% year on year in September 8. Consumer credit is growing much more slowly, at 4.86% 9, so the wider new lending in the survey does not by itself mean household borrowing is accelerating.

Region: Indonesia's banks expect looser standards with the BI rate held at 5.75% 10, while in the Philippines the central bank raised its policy rate to 5.50% in October 11. Funding conditions for lenders in the two largest maritime markets are moving in different directions.

New-loan net balance in BI's quarterly banking survey (% (net balance))
025507510055.072025Q185.222025Q282.332025Q388.922025Q438.742026Q193.082026Q290.082026Q3
New-loan net balance in BI's quarterly banking survey (% (net balance))
2025Q155.07
2025Q285.22
2025Q382.33
2025Q488.92
2026Q138.74
2026Q293.08
2026Q390.08

Weighted net balance (SBT) of banks reporting higher vs lower new lending in the quarter, BI banking survey · Source: Bank Indonesia: Survei Perbankan Triwulan II 2026 (2025Q1, 2025Q2, 2025Q3, 2025Q4, 2026Q1, 2026Q2, 2026Q3) A net balance of responses, not a growth rate; first-quarter readings are seasonally low every year, so compare the same quarter across years.

Counterpoints and uncertainties

The SBT is a net balance of survey responses, not a measure of loan volumes; a high reading can coexist with modest growth in balances. The press release does not break the results down by loan type, so the easing may be concentrated in corporate or working-capital credit rather than consumer loans. Banks' own expectations can miss: the Q3 reading came in well above what banks expected in the Q2 survey.

Key figures

  1. New-loan net balance (SBT), BI banking survey, Q3 2026: 90.08% (vs 82.33% in Q3 2025 and 84.65% expected in BI's Q2 survey)
    A net balance, not a growth rate: it shows how widely banks report more new lending than in the previous quarter. Strongly seasonal (first-quarter readings are low every year).
    . Weighted net balance of banks reporting higher vs lower new lending in the quarter, BI banking survey. Indonesia, commercial banks responding to BI's quarterly banking survey. Basis date: 30 Sep 2026. Source: Bank Indonesia press release No. 28/234/DKom: Survei Perbankan Triwulan III 2026 (2026-10-22)
  2. Expected new-loan net balance (SBT) for Q3 2026, BI Q2 2026 survey: 84.65%. Weighted net balance of banks reporting higher vs lower new lending in the quarter, BI banking survey (expectation for Q3 in the Q2 survey). Indonesia, commercial banks responding to BI's quarterly banking survey. Basis date: 30 Jun 2026. Source: Bank Indonesia: Survei Perbankan Triwulan II 2026
  3. New-loan net balance (SBT), BI banking survey, Q3 2025: 82.33%. Weighted net balance of banks reporting higher vs lower new lending in the quarter, BI banking survey. Indonesia, commercial banks responding to BI's quarterly banking survey. Basis date: 30 Sep 2025. Source: Bank Indonesia: Survei Perbankan Triwulan II 2026
  4. BI Lending Standard Index (ILS), Q3 2026: 0.28 (down from 1.03 in Q2 2026)
    Q2 2026 value (1.03) is from BI's Q2 2026 survey report. The Q3 value is still above zero (slight net tightening), but lower than in Q2.
    . BI Lending Standard Index (ILS), banking survey net balance: above zero = net tightening, below zero = net loosening; BI reads a fall as looser standards. Indonesia, commercial banks responding to BI's quarterly banking survey. Basis date: 30 Sep 2026. Source: Bank Indonesia press release No. 28/234/DKom: Survei Perbankan Triwulan III 2026 (2026-10-22)
  5. Expected BI Lending Standard Index (ILS), Q4 2026: 0.15 (vs 0.28 in Q3 2026). BI Lending Standard Index (ILS), banking survey net balance: above zero = net tightening, below zero = net loosening; BI reads a fall as looser standards (banks' expectation). Indonesia, commercial banks responding to BI's quarterly banking survey. Basis date: 22 Oct 2026. Source: Bank Indonesia press release No. 28/234/DKom: Survei Perbankan Triwulan III 2026 (2026-10-22)
  6. Expected new-loan net balance (SBT), Q4 2026, BI banking survey: 91.31% (vs 88.92% in Q4 2025)
    A net balance, not a growth rate: it shows how widely banks report more new lending than in the previous quarter. Strongly seasonal (first-quarter readings are low every year).
    . Weighted net balance of banks reporting higher vs lower new lending in the quarter, BI banking survey (banks' expectation). Indonesia, commercial banks responding to BI's quarterly banking survey. Basis date: 22 Oct 2026. Source: Bank Indonesia press release No. 28/234/DKom: Survei Perbankan Triwulan III 2026 (2026-10-22)
  7. Expected 2026 bank credit growth, BI Q2 2026 banking survey: 7.51%. Year-on-year growth of outstanding bank credit expected by respondents for end-2026, BI Q2 2026 banking survey. Indonesia, commercial banks responding to BI's quarterly banking survey. Basis date: 30 Jun 2026. Source: Bank Indonesia: Survei Perbankan Triwulan II 2026
  8. Bank credit growth, September 2026 (BI): 13.26% (down from 13.65% in August). Bank credit, y/y at month-end, as announced by Bank Indonesia after its Board of Governors meeting. Indonesia, national. Basis date: 30 Sep 2026. Source: Bank Indonesia press release No. 28/233/DKom: BI-Rate Tetap 5,75%: Memperkuat Stabilitas, Mendorong Pertumbuhan Ekonomi (2026-10-21)
  9. Consumer credit growth, September 2026 (BI): 4.86% (down from 5.07% in August). Bank consumption credit, y/y, as announced by Bank Indonesia after its Board of Governors meeting. Indonesia, national. Basis date: 30 Sep 2026. Source: Bank Indonesia press release No. 28/233/DKom: BI-Rate Tetap 5,75%: Memperkuat Stabilitas, Mendorong Pertumbuhan Ekonomi (2026-10-21)
  10. BI-Rate (October 2026 decision): 5.75% (unchanged from September). Bank Indonesia benchmark policy rate. Indonesia, national. Basis date: 21 Oct 2026. Source: Bank Indonesia press release No. 28/233/DKom: BI-Rate Tetap 5,75%: Memperkuat Stabilitas, Mendorong Pertumbuhan Ekonomi (2026-10-21)
  11. BSP policy rate after the 22 October 2026 meeting: 5.50% (up from 5.0%). BSP target reverse repurchase (RRP) rate. Philippines, national. Basis date: 22 Oct 2026. Source: Philstar: Inflation risks prompt BSP to hike rates anew (2026-10-22)

Sources

  1. Bank Indonesia press release No. 28/234/DKom: Survei Perbankan Triwulan III 2026 (2026-10-22)primary
  2. Bank Indonesia: Survei Perbankan Triwulan II 2026primary
  3. Bank Indonesia press release No. 28/233/DKom (2026-10-21)primary
  4. KabarBursa: Penyaluran Kredit pada Kuartal IV 2026 Diperkirakan Meningkat (2026-10-24)
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A Japanese version of this article is available: 日本語版

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