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World Bank puts Cambodia's 2026 growth at 3.5%, citing tourism, remittances and tighter credit

Published Data as of CambodiaMacro & households
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Key points

Implications

ExecutivesBudget 2026 on growth between 3.0% and 3.9%, and treat a 2027 recovery as conditional on tourism and energy prices.
InvestorsThe World Bank's explicit reference to tighter credit conditions supports expecting slower loan growth and continued provisioning pressure in 2026 results.
OperatorsRe-score affordability for borrowers exposed to fuel costs and tourism income, and track returning migrant workers as a new-to-credit segment with thin repayment histories.

Facts

Forecast: in its East Asia and Pacific Economic Update released on 6 October, the World Bank projects Cambodia's real GDP growth at 3.5% 1 in 2026, 4.0% 2 in 2027 and 5.0% 3 in 2028 (Bernama, Xinhua).

Drivers: the Bank says domestic demand weakened in 2026 as international arrivals and remittances fell and higher oil prices squeezed household incomes, while "a real estate correction and tighter credit conditions weighed heavily on investment". Rising goods exports partly cushioned growth.

Inputs cited: international tourist arrivals were 2.25 million 4 in January–August, down 44% year on year. Regular gasoline sold at KHR 5,150 per litre 5, up 33.7% from before the Middle East conflict, and diesel at KHR 5,650 per litre 6, up 46.7% from before the Middle East conflict.

Outlook: the Bank expects stabilising energy prices, a tourism revival and the reintegration of returning migrant workers to support a recovery in 2027–2028, with El Niño a risk to farm output in 2027.

Analysis

Within two weeks, four forecasters have published 2026 numbers for Cambodia. ADB 7 and AMRO 8 both sit at 3.9%, the World Bank at 3.5%, and the IMF Board at 3.0% 9. The spread is narrow, and every forecaster now points to services, property and household cash flow as the weak side of the economy.

The World Bank's wording adds one element for lenders: it names tighter credit conditions as a drag on investment, alongside the property correction. That fits the banking data. The NPL ratio reached 9.6% 10 at end-June, up from 8.4% at end-June 2025, while remittances in 2025 were estimated at USD 1.86bn 11, −37% from USD 2.95bn in 2024. Fuel prices compound the squeeze on borrowers whose income comes from transport, tourism and small trade.

Counterpoints and uncertainties

Forecasts may move again if tourist arrivals recover faster than assumed or if oil prices fall; the World Bank expects a rebound to 5.0% by 2028. The headline figures are from news-agency reports of the regional update; the full country table may add detail or rounding. Goods exports are growing and could offset more of the services weakness than forecasters assume.

Key figures

  1. World Bank real GDP growth forecast, 2026: 3.5%. World Bank East Asia and Pacific Economic Update, October 2026 forecast. Whole economy. Basis date: 6 Oct 2026. Source: Bernama: World Bank Cuts Cambodia's 2026 Growth Forecast To 3.5 Pct Amid Tourism Slump, High Fuel Costs (2026-10-06)
  2. World Bank real GDP growth forecast, 2027: 4.0%. World Bank East Asia and Pacific Economic Update, October 2026 forecast. Whole economy. Basis date: 6 Oct 2026. Source: Bernama: World Bank Cuts Cambodia's 2026 Growth Forecast To 3.5 Pct Amid Tourism Slump, High Fuel Costs (2026-10-06)
  3. World Bank real GDP growth forecast, 2028: 5.0%. World Bank East Asia and Pacific Economic Update, October 2026 forecast. Whole economy. Basis date: 6 Oct 2026. Source: Bernama: World Bank Cuts Cambodia's 2026 Growth Forecast To 3.5 Pct Amid Tourism Slump, High Fuel Costs (2026-10-06)
  4. International tourist arrivals, January–August 2026: 2.25 million (down 44% year on year). International tourist arrivals, January–August, Ministry of Tourism data as cited with the World Bank update. Cambodia. Basis date: 31 Aug 2026. Source: Xinhua: World Bank cuts Cambodia's 2026 growth forecast to 3.5 pct amid tourism slump, high fuel costs (2026-10-06)
  5. Regular gasoline retail price: KHR 5,150 per litre (up 33.7% from before the Middle East conflict). Retail price of regular gasoline, as cited with the World Bank update. Cambodia, retail fuel. Basis date: 6 Oct 2026. Source: Xinhua: World Bank cuts Cambodia's 2026 growth forecast to 3.5 pct amid tourism slump, high fuel costs (2026-10-06)
  6. Diesel retail price: KHR 5,650 per litre (up 46.7% from before the Middle East conflict). Retail price of diesel, as cited with the World Bank update. Cambodia, retail fuel. Basis date: 6 Oct 2026. Source: Xinhua: World Bank cuts Cambodia's 2026 growth forecast to 3.5 pct amid tourism slump, high fuel costs (2026-10-06)
  7. ADB real GDP growth forecast, 2026: 3.9% (revised down from 4.1% (July 2026)). ADB Asian Development Outlook September 2026 forecast. Whole economy. Basis date: 23 Sep 2026. Source: ADB: Developing Southeast Asia, Asian Development Outlook September 2026 (2026-09-23)
  8. AMRO real GDP growth forecast, 2026: 3.9% (revised down from 4.2% (July 2026)). AMRO ASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook, October 2026 quarterly update forecast. Whole economy. Basis date: 5 Oct 2026. Source: AKP: Cambodia's Strong Manufacturing Exports Offset Weak Services Sector: AMRO Chief Economist (2026-10-05)
  9. IMF real GDP growth projection, 2026: 3.0% (unchanged from the July 2026 staff mission)
    July value from the IMF staff mission statement of 2026-07-07.
    . IMF 2026 Article IV projection of real GDP growth. Whole economy. Basis date: 28 Sep 2026. Source: IMF: Executive Board concludes 2026 Article IV consultation with Cambodia (Press Release 26/307, 2026-09-28)
  10. NBC NPL ratio (semi-annual, latest): 9.6% (up from 8.4% at end-June 2025)
    NBC primary document not located on nbc.gov.kh; figure as reported by Xinhua from the NBC semi-annual report released 28 July 2026.
    . Non-performing loans as a share of total loans, banking system. Banks and financial institutions supervised by NBC. Basis date: 30 Jun 2026. Source: NBC semi-annual report H1 2026 (via Xinhua, 2026-07-28)
  11. Remittances from workers abroad (MoLVT estimate): USD 1.86bn (−37% from USD 2.95bn in 2024)
    Detailed definition unverified.
    . Ministry of Labour and Vocational Training estimate. Cambodian workers abroad. Basis date: 31 Dec 2025. Source: Cambodianess: Remittance crunch (MoLVT estimate), 2026-03-31

Sources

  1. Bernama: World Bank Cuts Cambodia's 2026 Growth Forecast To 3.5 Pct Amid Tourism Slump, High Fuel Costs (2026-10-06)
  2. Xinhua: World Bank cuts Cambodia's 2026 growth forecast to 3.5 pct amid tourism slump, high fuel costs (2026-10-06)
  3. IMF: Executive Board Concludes 2026 Article IV Consultation with Cambodia (2026-09-28)primary
  4. AMRO: Quarterly Update of the ASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook, October 2026 (2026-10-05)primary
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Reports are for information only and are not investment advice.

A Japanese version of this article is available: 日本語版

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