Myanmar's August manufacturing PMI returns to expansion territory, but output still falls

Published 28 Sep 2026Data as of 1 Sep 2026MyanmarMacro & households

Correction: Date changed to the S&P Global release date (1 September).

The August manufacturing PMI was 50.3, up from 49.3 in July; first reading above 50 in four months (S&P Global via JETRO)
Output and new orders kept falling, though at a slower pace; purchasing rose for the first time in five months
Employment slipped into a slight decline after four months of gains

Facts

Index: Myanmar's manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) for August, released by S&P Global on 1 September 2026, stood at 50.3 ¹, up from 49.3 in July; first reading above 50 in four months. Source: JETRO (2026-09-08, citing S&P Global). The S&P Global original release has not been obtained.

Components: output and new orders continued to decline, but at the slowest rate in recent months. Purchasing activity rose for the first time in five months, with the largest increase since mid-2023. Raw material inventories rose for the first time in about a year. Employment turned to a slight decline after four months of growth. Source: as above.

Local firms: an executive of one Japanese apparel company put monthly staff turnover at about 4–5% per month (JETRO interview, 2 September; a single anecdote). Source: as above.

Analysis

The move above the expansion threshold owes much to higher purchasing and inventories, while output and new orders are still contracting. Firms may be stockpiling inputs against future supply disruption, so the reading does not by itself indicate a demand recovery.

Over time and across forecasts, ADB cut its FY2026 (April–March) growth forecast for Myanmar to 2.2% (revised down from 2.4% (July 2026)) and projects inflation of 24.0% (2026-09-23). A one-month PMI improvement coexists with a weaker full-year outlook.

Implications

ExecutivesLenders should not treat a single month's PMI improvement as grounds for loosening credit, and should keep salaried-borrower underwriting anchored on employer conditions and length of service.

InvestorsWith inflation forecast at 24.0%, nominal improvements in business conditions are unlikely to translate into real repayment capacity; valuations should stay cautious.

OperatorsHigh staff turnover (about 4–5% per month at Japanese-affiliated firms) affects income stability, so length-of-service conditions should remain in credit criteria.

Counterpoints and uncertainties

The PMI is volatile month to month and could fall back below the threshold next month. Conversely, higher purchasing and inventories may lead output, and output and orders could turn up within a few months. The turnover figure comes from JETRO interviews and is not statistically representative.

Figures: see definitions

Manufacturing PMI (S&P Global): 50.3 (up from 49.3 in July; first reading above 50 in four months)
Above 50 indicates expansion; S&P Global release of 1 September 2026, cited by JETRO; S&P original not obtained.
. Purchasing managers' index. Manufacturing sector. Basis date: 31 Aug 2026. Source: JETRO Biz News: Myanmar's August manufacturing PMI returns to expansion territory (2026-09-08)

Sources

Reports are for information only and are not investment advice. Methodology: sources, verification and definitions