Myanmar's August manufacturing PMI returns to expansion territory, but output still falls

Implications

Facts

Index: Myanmar's manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) for August, released by S&P Global on 1 September 2026, stood at 50.3 ¹, up from 49.3 in July; first reading above 50 in four months. Source: JETRO (2026-09-08, citing S&P Global). Components: output and new orders continued to decline, but at the slowest rate in recent months. Purchasing activity rose for the first time in five months, with the largest increase since mid-2023. Raw material inventories rose for the first time in about a year. Employment turned to a slight decline after four months of growth. Source: as above. Local firms: an executive of one Japanese apparel company put monthly staff turnover at about 4–5% per month (JETRO interview, 2 September; a single anecdote). Source: as above.

Analysis

The move above the expansion threshold owes much to higher purchasing and inventories, while output and new orders are still contracting. Firms may be stockpiling inputs against future supply disruption, so the reading does not by itself indicate a demand recovery.

Over time and across forecasts, ADB cut its FY2026 (April–March) growth forecast for Myanmar to 2.2% (revised down from 2.4% (July 2026)) and projects inflation of 24.0% (2026-09-23). A one-month PMI improvement coexists with a weaker full-year outlook.

Counterpoints and uncertainties

The PMI is volatile month to month and could fall back below the threshold next month. Conversely, higher purchasing and inventories may lead output, and output and orders could turn up within a few months. The turnover figure comes from JETRO interviews and is not statistically representative.