Philippine consumer confidence improves to −29.8% in Q3 2026 but stays negative

Published 28 Sep 2026Data as of 26 Sep 2026PhilippinesMacro & households

BSP's consumer confidence index for July–September was −29.8% (up from −42.0% in Q2 2026).
The outlook for October–December is −0.8% (up from −16.3% in the previous survey), close to neutral.
The August business confidence index improved to −10.9% (up from −20.3% in July).

Facts

Consumers: the consumer confidence index for July–September 2026, based on a nationwide household sample, was −29.8% (up from −42.0% in Q2 2026). The outlook for October–December was −0.8% (up from −16.3% in the previous survey), and for the next twelve months 9.1% (up from 0.2% in the previous survey). Source: BSP Consumer Expectations Survey as reported by the Inquirer. ¹

Expected inflation: consumers expect inflation of 4% ahead and are also concerned about currency weakness, unemployment and higher borrowing costs. Same source.

Businesses: the August business confidence index was −10.9% (up from −20.3% in July); the next-three-months outlook was 24.6% (up from 3.7% in July). Same source. ²

Analysis

Household expectations improved sharply, but current repayment-capacity indicators have not. July unemployment was 6.0% (up from 5.3% in July 2025, PSA) and the banks' consumer-loan NPL ratio rose to 5.49% (BSP). Indonesia's consumer confidence also rose in August to 118.5 (BI), so across the region expectations are running ahead of outcomes.

Implications

ExecutivesWhen applications rise on the back of expectations, underwriting should remain anchored to verified income.

InvestorsRecovering confidence is a leading indicator of credit demand, but an improvement in credit quality is not yet visible.

OperatorsBefore raising approval rates in line with application volumes, check income verification and early-arrears capacity.

Counterpoints and uncertainties

The index remains negative, and the improvement depends on external factors such as hopes of calm in the Middle East; it could reverse if those hopes fade. The BSP survey report and its exact release date were not verified against primary sources.

Figures: see definitions

Consumer confidence index, current quarter: −29.8% (up from −42.0% in Q2 2026)
BSP Consumer Expectations Survey.
. Share of optimistic minus share of pessimistic respondents. 5,476 households nationwide. Basis date: 30 Sep 2026. Source: Inquirer: PH consumers, firms turn less gloomy
Business confidence index: −10.9% (up from −20.3% in July)
BSP Business Expectations Survey.
. Share of optimistic minus pessimistic firms. 501 firms. Basis date: 31 Aug 2026. Source: Inquirer: PH consumers, firms turn less gloomy

Sources

Inquirer: PH consumers, firms turn less gloomy

Reports are for information only and are not investment advice. Methodology: sources, verification and definitions