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Singapore households' five-year inflation expectations rise to 4.2% in DBS-SKBI survey

Published Data as of SingaporeMacro & households
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Key points

Implications for lenders

For consumer lenders in Singapore, five-year inflation expectations of 4.2% suggest borrowers may expect living costs to keep rising, which can tighten disposable income in affordability checks. With 38.6% of respondents expecting their finances to worsen, collections teams may watch for early arrears among households with high fixed costs.

Implications

ExecutivesBanks and finance companies in Singapore may see borrowers price in higher living costs even while MAS expects core inflation to stay contained.
InvestorsRising long-term expectations are one input MAS watches; for investors, they add uncertainty to the path of Singapore dollar interest rates after the October hold.
OperatorsConsumer lenders may keep cost-of-living buffers in affordability assessments, as households expect higher prices but fewer expect income falls.

Facts

Singapore Management University's Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics published the latest DBS-SKBI Singapore Index of Inflation Expectations (SInDEx) on 20 October 2026. The survey of 510 respondents ran in September 2026. 1

One-year-ahead expectations for headline inflation were 3.4%, unchanged from June 2026. 2 For core inflation, which in the survey excludes accommodation and private transport, one-year expectations rose to 3.6%, up from 3.4% in June 2026. 3 The composite five-year measure, SInDEx5, rose to 4.2%, up from 4.0% in June 2026, 4 and five-year core expectations to 4.2%, up from 3.8% in June 2026. 5

On household finances, 38.6% of respondents expected their financial situation to worsen over the next year, down from 46.0% in June 2026. 6 The share expecting household income to fall by more than a tenth was 7.1%, down from 8.5% in June 2026. 7 DBS chief economist Taimur Baig said concerns about 'accumulating price shocks' were evident in the results.

Analysis

Household expectations sit well above official measures and forecasts. Actual core inflation was 2.2% in August, up from 2.0% in July, 8 and on 14 October MAS narrowed its 2026 core inflation forecast to 1.5–2.0%. 9 MAS held policy at that meeting after two tightenings. The gap between surveyed and actual inflation is common in household surveys, but the rise in five-year expectations between June and September means the direction is upward even as MAS sees core inflation contained.

At the same time, households are less pessimistic about their own finances than in June. Rising price expectations alongside fewer expected income falls suggest households expect higher nominal costs but not, for most, a loss of income. Household debt was 1.08x of disposable income in Q2 2026, 1.04x in Q2 2025. 10

Counterpoints and uncertainties

SInDEx is a survey of 510 respondents and household expectations often run above actual inflation, so levels should not be read as forecasts. The survey's core measure excludes accommodation and private transport, as MAS core inflation does, but it records household expectations rather than measured prices. September CPI data, due later in October, could confirm or contradict the rise in expectations.

Key figures

  1. SInDEx survey respondents (September 2026): 510. Number of respondents in the DBS-SKBI SInDEx survey round of 11–21 September 2026. Singapore households surveyed. Basis date: 21 Sep 2026. Source: SMU Sim Kee Boon Institute: DBS-SKBI SInDEx survey, September 2026 round (2026-10-20)
  2. Households' one-year-ahead headline inflation expectation (September 2026): 3.4% (unchanged from June 2026). Average expected headline inflation one year ahead (DBS-SKBI SInDEx survey). Singapore households surveyed. Basis date: 21 Sep 2026. Source: SMU Sim Kee Boon Institute: DBS-SKBI SInDEx survey, September 2026 round (2026-10-20)
  3. Households' one-year-ahead core inflation expectation (September 2026): 3.6% (up from 3.4% in June 2026). Average expected inflation one year ahead, CPI excluding accommodation and private transport (DBS-SKBI SInDEx survey). Singapore households surveyed. Basis date: 21 Sep 2026. Source: SMU Sim Kee Boon Institute: DBS-SKBI SInDEx survey, September 2026 round (2026-10-20)
  4. Households' five-year-ahead inflation expectation, composite SInDEx5 (September 2026): 4.2% (up from 4.0% in June 2026). Composite index of expected inflation five years ahead (DBS-SKBI SInDEx survey). Singapore households surveyed. Basis date: 21 Sep 2026. Source: SMU Sim Kee Boon Institute: DBS-SKBI SInDEx survey, September 2026 round (2026-10-20)
  5. Households' five-year-ahead core inflation expectation (September 2026): 4.2% (up from 3.8% in June 2026). Average expected inflation five years ahead, CPI excluding accommodation and private transport (DBS-SKBI SInDEx survey). Singapore households surveyed. Basis date: 21 Sep 2026. Source: SMU Sim Kee Boon Institute: DBS-SKBI SInDEx survey, September 2026 round (2026-10-20)
  6. Share of households expecting their finances to worsen (September 2026): 38.6% (down from 46.0% in June 2026). Share of respondents expecting their household financial situation to worsen over the next year (DBS-SKBI SInDEx survey). Singapore households surveyed. Basis date: 21 Sep 2026. Source: SMU Sim Kee Boon Institute: DBS-SKBI SInDEx survey, September 2026 round (2026-10-20)
  7. Share of households expecting income to fall by more than 10% (September 2026): 7.1% (down from 8.5% in June 2026). Share of respondents giving an income forecast who expect household income to fall by more than 10% next year (DBS-SKBI SInDEx survey). Singapore households surveyed. Basis date: 21 Sep 2026. Source: SMU Sim Kee Boon Institute: DBS-SKBI SInDEx survey, September 2026 round (2026-10-20)
  8. MAS core inflation: 2.2% (up from 2.0% in July)
    Excluding accommodation and private transport.
    . Year-on-year change in MAS core CPI. Singapore, national. Basis date: 31 Aug 2026. Source: MTI: Consumer Price Developments in August 2026 (2026-09-23)
  9. MAS core inflation forecast for 2026 (October 2026): 1.5–2.0% (narrowed from 1.5–2.5%)
    Previous range of 1.5–2.5% is the forecast MAS maintained in its July 2026 statement (as reported by Mothership and OCBC, 27 July 2026).
    . MAS forecast range for average MAS core inflation in 2026, from its October 2026 monetary policy statement. Singapore, national. Basis date: 14 Oct 2026. Source: MAS: Monetary Policy Statement, 14 October 2026
  10. Household debt to disposable income: 1.08x (1.04x in Q2 2025)
    MAS publishes a debt-to-income ratio rather than debt to GDP. The MAS document could not be read directly.
    . Household debt / personal disposable income. Households. Basis date: 30 Jun 2026. Source: The Online Citizen (2026-09-22), reporting the MAS Financial Stability Review 2026

Sources

  1. SMU Sim Kee Boon Institute: DBS-SKBI SInDEx survey, September 2026 round (2026-10-20)primary
  2. MAS Monetary Policy Statement, October 2026primary
  3. MAS: Consumer Price Developments in August 2026primary
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A Japanese version of this article is available: 日本語版

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