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Singapore core inflation eases to 2.0% in September as services and retail prices cool

Published Data as of SingaporeMacro & households
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Key points

Implications for lenders

For consumer lenders in Singapore, core inflation of 2.0% eases pressure on real incomes only slightly, while electricity and gas prices still rise at 8.7%. Affordability models may keep utility and transport costs as separate stress items, and collections teams may watch households with high fixed costs rather than expect broad relief.

Implications

ExecutivesBanks and finance companies in Singapore get a slightly softer price backdrop, but MAS still describes inflation risks as tilted to the upside.
InvestorsCore inflation at the top of the MAS forecast range keeps the October policy hold in place as a baseline; the next MAS policy decision is the main signal to watch.
OperatorsConsumer lenders can note that utility costs are still rising at 8.7% even as services inflation cools, which matters for household budgets in affordability checks.

Facts

The Ministry of Energy, Trade and Industry and the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) published consumer price data for September 2026 on 23 October. MAS core inflation, which excludes accommodation and private transport, was 2.0% year on year, down from 2.2% in August. 1 On the month, core prices rose 0.1%. 2 Headline CPI-All Items inflation was 2.2%, down from 2.3% in August, 3 with a monthly rise of 0.2%, down from 0.6% in August. 4

By component, services inflation was 1.7%, down from 2.0% in August, 5 and retail and other goods inflation 1.2%, down from 1.8% in August. 6 Private transport inflation was 7.1%, down from 7.5% in August. 7 Electricity and gas inflation was 8.7%, unchanged from the previous two months. 8

The authorities said imported cost pressures should stay firm in the near term, and that core inflation should stay slightly elevated in coming quarters before easing more noticeably from mid-2027. The authorities said 'the risks to inflation remain tilted to the upside'.

Analysis

September reverses August's rise: core inflation was 2.2% in August, up from 2.0% in July, 9 so the latest reading is back to the July level. It sits at the top of the 2026 core forecast range of 1.5–2.0% that MAS set when it held policy on 14 October. 10

Households expect more: in the DBS-SKBI survey taken in September, one-year-ahead core expectations were 3.6%. 11 The gap between measured and expected inflation therefore widened in September.

Across the region's financial centres, Hong Kong's composite CPI inflation rose to 1.9% in September, up from 1.7% in August, 12 so headline inflation in the two cities is now at similar levels but moving in opposite directions. For Singapore, energy-linked items remain the main source of pressure while services, the largest domestic driver, cooled.

Counterpoints and uncertainties

One month's easing does not establish a trend: MAS expects core inflation to stay slightly elevated in coming quarters, and energy and food prices could push it back up. Private transport, which is outside the core measure, and energy-linked electricity and gas prices remain the most volatile items for household budgets.

Key figures

  1. MAS core inflation: 2.0% (down from 2.2% in August)
    Excluding accommodation and private transport.
    . Year-on-year change in MAS core CPI. Singapore, national. Basis date: 30 Sep 2026. Source: AsiaOne: Singapore core inflation dips to 2% in September (reporting MTI/MAS release of 2026-10-23)
  2. MAS core CPI, month on month: 0.1%. Month-on-month change in MAS core CPI. Singapore, national. Basis date: 30 Sep 2026. Source: AsiaOne: Singapore core inflation dips to 2% in September (reporting MTI/MAS release of 2026-10-23)
  3. Headline CPI inflation (CPI-All Items): 2.2% (down from 2.3% in August). Year-on-year change in the consumer price index. Singapore, national. Basis date: 30 Sep 2026. Source: Xinhua: Singapore core inflation eases to 2 pct in September (2026-10-23)
  4. Headline CPI, month on month: 0.2% (down from 0.6% in August). Month-on-month change in CPI-All Items. Singapore, national. Basis date: 30 Sep 2026. Source: AsiaOne: Singapore core inflation dips to 2% in September (reporting MTI/MAS release of 2026-10-23)
  5. Services inflation: 1.7% (down from 2.0% in August). Year-on-year change in the services component of the CPI. Services index. Basis date: 30 Sep 2026. Source: AsiaOne: Singapore core inflation dips to 2% in September (reporting MTI/MAS release of 2026-10-23)
  6. Retail and other goods inflation: 1.2% (down from 1.8% in August). Year-on-year change in the retail and other goods component of the CPI. Retail and other goods index. Basis date: 30 Sep 2026. Source: AsiaOne: Singapore core inflation dips to 2% in September (reporting MTI/MAS release of 2026-10-23)
  7. Private transport inflation: 7.1% (down from 7.5% in August). Year-on-year change in the private transport component of the CPI. Private transport index. Basis date: 30 Sep 2026. Source: AsiaOne: Singapore core inflation dips to 2% in September (reporting MTI/MAS release of 2026-10-23)
  8. Electricity and gas inflation: 8.7% (unchanged from the previous two months). Year-on-year change in the electricity and gas component of the CPI. Electricity and gas index. Basis date: 30 Sep 2026. Source: AsiaOne: Singapore core inflation dips to 2% in September (reporting MTI/MAS release of 2026-10-23)
  9. MAS core inflation: 2.2% (up from 2.0% in July)
    Excluding accommodation and private transport.
    . Year-on-year change in MAS core CPI. Singapore, national. Basis date: 31 Aug 2026. Source: MTI: Consumer Price Developments in August 2026 (2026-09-23)
  10. MAS core inflation forecast for 2026 (October 2026): 1.5–2.0% (narrowed from 1.5–2.5%)
    Previous range of 1.5–2.5% is the forecast MAS maintained in its July 2026 statement (as reported by Mothership and OCBC, 27 July 2026).
    . MAS forecast range for average MAS core inflation in 2026, from its October 2026 monetary policy statement. Singapore, national. Basis date: 14 Oct 2026. Source: MAS: Monetary Policy Statement, 14 October 2026
  11. Households' one-year-ahead core inflation expectation (September 2026): 3.6% (up from 3.4% in June 2026). Average expected inflation one year ahead, CPI excluding accommodation and private transport (DBS-SKBI SInDEx survey). Singapore households surveyed. Basis date: 21 Sep 2026. Source: SMU Sim Kee Boon Institute: DBS-SKBI SInDEx survey, September 2026 round (2026-10-20)
  12. Headline CPI inflation (Composite CPI), y/y: 1.9% (up from 1.7% in August). Year-on-year change in the Composite Consumer Price Index, Census and Statistics Department. Hong Kong, all households covered by the Composite CPI. Basis date: 30 Sep 2026. Source: Hong Kong Government press release: Consumer Price Indices for September 2026 (2026-10-22, C&SD)

Sources

  1. MAS: Consumer Price Developments in September 2026 (2026-10-23)primary
  2. AsiaOne: Singapore core inflation dips to 2% in September (reporting MTI/MAS release of 2026-10-23)
  3. Xinhua: Singapore core inflation eases to 2 pct in September (2026-10-23)
  4. MAS Monetary Policy Statement, 14 October 2026primary
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A Japanese version of this article is available: 日本語版

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