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Vietnam's inflation holds at 5.09% in October, keeping the year-to-date average above the 4.5% ceiling

Published Data as of VietnamMacro & households
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Key points

Implications for lenders

With consumer prices up 5.09% and the ten-month average at 4.57%, lenders may want to refresh living-cost assumptions in affordability checks, particularly for borrowers exposed to the 6.86% monthly rise in petrol prices. Inflation above the 4.5% ceiling can also keep deposit and funding costs from falling, which matters for pricing new consumer loans.

Implications

ExecutivesFuel-led inflation above the government ceiling keeps pressure on household budgets, especially for borrowers who commute or depend on transport for income.
InvestorsAn average above the ceiling with core inflation lower can reduce the room for further rate cuts and may keep bank funding costs elevated into 2027.
OperatorsAffordability models calibrated on early-2026 prices may understate current living costs; transport-heavy borrower segments merit closer monitoring.

Facts

Headline: according to Statistics Office data released on 3 November and reported by VietnamPlus, the consumer price index rose 5.09% 1 from October 2025, up 0.20% month on month and 4.41% above December 2025. Over January–October, prices averaged 4.57% 2 above the same period of 2025.

Drivers: VietnamPlus attributes the monthly rise mainly to domestic fuel price increases. Thi truong Tai chinh Tien te reports that the transport group rose 2.66% 3 month on month, with the petrol price index up 6.86% 4.

Core: core inflation, which excludes food, energy and state-managed items, was 4.04% 5 year on year, down 0.05% month on month, and averaged 4.24% 6 over the ten months.

Analysis

Time series: the October rate is almost unchanged from September's 5.08% 7, and the ten-month average has moved up from 4.52% for January–September 8. The government's ceiling for 2026 average inflation is 4.5% 9, and the Asian Development Bank's September forecast for the year was 4.3% 10, below the average recorded so far. Bringing the full-year average back under the ceiling would require markedly lower monthly readings in November and December.

Cross-country: Vietnam's headline rate is below Laos's 7.7% in October 11 and close to Cambodia's 5.5% in July 12, but well above Thailand's 2.82% in September 13. The gap between headline and core in Vietnam points to fuel prices rather than broad demand as the main source of the overshoot.

Counterpoints and uncertainties

The overshoot is driven by fuel, which can reverse quickly if world oil prices or domestic fuel-price adjustments fall; core inflation of 4.04% suggests underlying pressure is milder. The figures are taken from media reports of the Statistics Office release, and the ceiling applies to the full-year average, which will only be known in January 2027.

Key figures

  1. CPI inflation, October 2026: 5.09% (up 0.20% month on month and 4.41% above December 2025). Consumer price index, year on year, Statistics Office. National. Basis date: 31 Oct 2026. Source: VietnamPlus: October CPI up 0.20%, mainly on fuel price increases (2026-11-03, citing the Statistics Office)
  2. CPI, average y/y, first ten months: 4.57%. Average year-on-year rise in consumer prices, January–October 2026, Statistics Office. National. Basis date: 31 Oct 2026. Source: VietnamPlus: October CPI up 0.20%, mainly on fuel price increases (2026-11-03, citing the Statistics Office)
  3. Transport price index, October 2026 (m/m): 2.66%. Month-on-month change in the transport group of the CPI, Statistics Office. National. Basis date: 31 Oct 2026. Source: Thi truong Tai chinh Tien te: CPI up 4.57% in the first ten months of 2026, core inflation up 4.24% (Statistics Office data)
  4. Petrol price index, October 2026 (m/m): 6.86%. Month-on-month change in the domestic petrol price index within the CPI, Statistics Office. National. Basis date: 31 Oct 2026. Source: Thi truong Tai chinh Tien te: CPI up 4.57% in the first ten months of 2026, core inflation up 4.24% (Statistics Office data)
  5. Core inflation, October 2026 (y/y): 4.04% (down 0.05% month on month). Core CPI (excluding food, energy and state-managed items such as health and education services), year on year, Statistics Office. National. Basis date: 31 Oct 2026. Source: VietnamPlus: October CPI up 0.20%, mainly on fuel price increases (2026-11-03, citing the Statistics Office)
  6. Core inflation, average y/y, first ten months: 4.24%. Average year-on-year rise in core CPI, January–October 2026, Statistics Office. National. Basis date: 31 Oct 2026. Source: VietnamPlus: October CPI up 0.20%, mainly on fuel price increases (2026-11-03, citing the Statistics Office)
  7. CPI inflation, September 2026: 5.08% (up 0.62% month on month and 4.20% above December 2025). Consumer price index, year on year, NSO. National. Basis date: 30 Sep 2026. Source: VnEconomy: Vietnam's September CPI rises 5.08% (2026-10-03, citing NSO)
  8. CPI, average y/y, first nine months: 4.52% (up from 4.45% for the first eight months). Average year-on-year rise in consumer prices, January–September 2026, NSO. National. Basis date: 30 Sep 2026. Source: VnEconomy: Vietnam's September CPI rises 5.08% (2026-10-03, citing NSO)
  9. Government inflation-control target 2026: 4.5%. Government ceiling for average 2026 inflation, as reported by Viet Nam News. National. Basis date: 30 Sep 2026. Source: Viet Nam News: Viet Nam rates likely to stay high until early 2027 (2026-09-30, citing SBV data)
  10. ADB inflation forecast, 2026: 4.3% (raised from 4.0%). ADB ADO September 2026 forecast of average consumer price inflation. Consumer prices. Basis date: 23 Sep 2026. Source: ADB: Developing Southeast Asia, Asian Development Outlook September 2026 (2026-09-23)
  11. CPI inflation, y/y: 7.7% (down from 7.8% in September). Year-on-year change in the consumer price index, Lao Statistics Bureau. Nationwide. Basis date: 31 Oct 2026. Source: Xinhua: Laos' inflation rate stands at 7.7 pct in October (2026-10-28)
  12. Consumer price inflation, July 2026 (y/y): 5.5% (down from 7.2% in May 2026). Year-on-year CPI change as cited by ADB. Whole economy. Basis date: 31 Jul 2026. Source: Phnom Penh Post: ADB cuts Cambodia's 2026 growth forecast to 3.9% amid tourism slowdown (2026-09-23)
  13. Headline CPI inflation, September 2026: 2.82% (up from 2.53% in August). Year-on-year change in the headline consumer price index, Ministry of Commerce. Thailand, national. Basis date: 30 Sep 2026. Source: The Nation: Fuel and fresh food lift Thai September inflation to 2.82% as 2026 forecast narrows to 1.8–2.2% (2026-10-06)

Sources

  1. VietnamPlus: October CPI up 0.20%, mainly on fuel price increases (2026-11-03, citing the Statistics Office)
  2. Thi truong Tai chinh Tien te: CPI up 4.57% in the first ten months of 2026, core inflation up 4.24%
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A Japanese version of this article is available: 日本語版

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